Manchester United v 
Tottenham
Match statistics
| Manchester United | Tottenham | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 467 | Passes | 464 |
| 45% | Possession % | 55% |
| 0.88 | xG | 1.68 |
- Over 1.5
- 84%
- Over 2.5
- 62%
- Over 3.5
- 40%
- Both score
- 61%
- Model pick
- Manchester United 55%
- Likely score
- 1-1 10%
- Expected goals
- 2.01 – 1.20
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Manchester United -0.5
Why this price?
Back Manchester United -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.65 with Bet365 — Manchester United must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 55% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 73%; we judge it at 66%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.51. The offered 1.65 implies only 61%, so the price is 9.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Manchester United 2.01, Tottenham 1.20.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Manchester United | 55.4% | 1.80 | 1.82 Betano | 54.9% | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 22.7% | 4.41 | 4.33 Betfair | 23.1% | -0.4 |
| Match result | Tottenham | 21.9% | 4.56 | 4.75 Bet365 | 21.1% | +0.9 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 83.6% | 1.20 | 1.17 Bet365 | 85.5% | -1.9 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 16.4% | 6.09 | 6.00 BetVictor | 16.7% | -0.2 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 62.2% | 1.61 | 1.53 Bet365 | 65.4% | -3.2 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 37.8% | 2.65 | 2.63 Betfair | 38.0% | -0.2 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 40.0% | 2.50 | 2.30 Bet365 | 43.5% | -3.5 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 60.0% | 1.67 | 1.67 Bet365 | 59.9% | +0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 61.1% | 1.64 | 1.53 Bet365 | 65.4% | -4.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 38.9% | 2.57 | 2.60 Betfair | 38.5% | +0.4 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Manchester United favoured against Tottenham
Our model makes Manchester United 55% to win this Premier League fixture, with the draw at 23% and Tottenham at 22%. The goal projection is 2.01 for Manchester United against 1.20 for Tottenham — a substantial edge to Manchester United on expected output. A combined 3.21 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 10%
- 2-1 10%
- 2-0 8%
- 1-0 8%
- 3-1 7%
This season
| Manchester United | Tottenham | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Played | 10 |
| 1-5-4 | W-D-L | 3-3-4 |
| 0.80 | Pts / game | 1.20 |
| 1.40 | Goals for / game | 1.00 |
| 1.90 | Goals against / game | 1.10 |
| 40% | Over 2.5 | 30% |
| 60% | BTTS | 30% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 40% |
| 40% | Failed to score | 50% |
| 1-2-2 | Home record | 2-1-2 |
| 0-3-2 | Away record | 1-2-2 |
| D1 | Streak | L1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Manchester United · Tottenham
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 18.2 | Shots | 17.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.3 | Shots on target | 5.3 |
| 6.7 | Corners | 8.0 |
| 2.70 | Cards | 2.20 |
| 12.3 | Fouls | 13.0 |
| 50 | Possession % | 66 |
| 1.57 | xG | 1.55 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 12.8 | Shots | 10.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.7 | Shots on target | 3.3 |
| 3.7 | Corners | 3.2 |
| 2.03 | Cards | 2.73 |
| 12.5 | Fouls | 12.5 |
| 50 | Possession % | 35 |
| 2.11 | xG | 0.94 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| Manchester United | Metric | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| 1.80 (better) | Goals scored | 0.60 |
| 1.40 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.60 |
| 1.10 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.11 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.20 (better) | Shots on target | 4.20 |
| 18.40 (better) | Total shots | 15.80 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.60 | Corners | 8.80 (better) |
| 53.6 | Possession % | 57.6 (better) |
| 554 (better) | Passes | 531 |
| Tackles | ||
| 10.00 (better) | Fouls | 12.60 |
| 1.75 (better) | Offsides | 2.60 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.00 (better) | Yellow cards | 1.20 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Manchester United wins
- 1
- Draws
- 2
- Tottenham wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 2.67
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 67%
- Manchester United v Tottenham1–12026-10-10
- Manchester United v Tottenham2–02026-02-07
- Tottenham v Manchester United2–22025-11-08
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | +10 | 27 | Arsenal won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Brighton | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | +19 | 22 | Brighton won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | +8 | 21 | Manchester City won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | +4 | 18 | Liverpool won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | +3 | 16 | Chelsea won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Everton | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 16 | Everton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 15 | Bournemouth won 4 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Brentford | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | +5 | 14 | Brentford won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Leeds | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 14 | Leeds won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 13 | Aston Villa won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Tottenham | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 | Tottenham won 3 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 | Newcastle won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Hull City | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | Hull City won 0 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Ipswich | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 | Ipswich won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Fulham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 10 | Fulham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 9 | Nottingham Forest won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Coventry | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -9 | 9 | Coventry won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Manchester United | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 8 | Manchester United won 0 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Sunderland | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 | Sunderland won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 7 | Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 5 |