Macarthur won 1 of the last 4LDDW7th0–0Western Sydney Wanderers won 1 of the last 4LDWD6th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Macarthur
Western Sydney Wanderers
7
Shots
16
2
Shots on target
6
6
Corners
6
12
Fouls
13
3
Yellow cards
1
—
Red cards
—
1
Offsides
1
287
Passes
488
38%
Possession %
62%
—
xG
—
43%
25%
33%
1 · MacarthurXWestern Sydney Wanderers · 2
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
37%
Both score
62%
Model pick
Macarthur 43%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.66 – 1.43
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Macarthur
42.6%
2.35
2.88 Betfair
34.7%
+7.9
Match result
Draw
24.8%
4.03
3.80 Betano
26.3%
-1.5
Match result
Western Sydney Wanderers
32.5%
3.07
2.50 Betano
40.0%
-7.5
Total goals
Over 1.5
81.8%
1.22
1.21 Betano
82.6%
-0.8
Total goals
Under 1.5
18.2%
5.51
5.00 Betfair
20.0%
-1.8
Total goals
Over 2.5
59.5%
1.68
1.65 Betano
60.6%
-1.1
Total goals
Under 2.5
40.5%
2.47
2.45 Betfair
40.8%
-0.3
Total goals
Over 3.5
37.2%
2.69
2.63 Betfair
38.0%
-0.9
Total goals
Under 3.5
62.8%
1.59
1.57 Bet365
63.7%
-0.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
62.0%
1.61
1.53 Betfair
65.4%
-3.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
38.0%
2.63
2.63 Betfair
38.0%
-0.1
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Macarthur favoured against Western Sydney Wanderers
Our model makes Macarthur 43% to win this A-League fixture, with the draw at 25% and Western Sydney Wanderers at 33%. The goal projection is 1.66 for Macarthur against 1.43 for Western Sydney Wanderers — a slight edge to Macarthur on expected output. A combined 3.08 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 11%
2-1 9%
1-2 8%
1-0 7%
2-2 6%
This season
Season records for Macarthur and Western Sydney Wanderers
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Macarthur
Metric
Western Sydney Wanderers
2.20
Goals scored
2.60 (better)
1.00 (better)
Goals conceded
1.80
1.72 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.44
—
Big chances *
—
4.00 (better)
Shots on target
2.00
15.33 (better)
Total shots
13.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.00 (better)
Corners
3.00
48.0
Possession %
55.0 (better)
384 (better)
Passes
378
—
Tackles
—
12.00 (better)
Fouls
14.00
1.33
Offsides
0.00 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.67 (better)
Yellow cards
5.00
—
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Macarthur v 
Western Sydney Wanderers