Macarthur v Perth Glory

7th2–15th

06:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Macarthur		Perth Glory
9	Shots	9
2	Shots on target	6
4	Corners	2
11	Fouls	19
3	Yellow cards	1
—	Red cards	—
1	Offsides	2
433	Passes	427
51%	Possession %	49%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 83%
Over 2.5: 61%
Over 3.5: 39%
Both score: 63%

Model pick: Macarthur 39%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.61 – 1.54

Advised bets

Lost

Free pick

Perth Glory

3.60BetVictor · fair 3.30 · qualifies at 3.40+ · 0.87u

Why this price?

Back Perth Glory to win at 3.60 with BetVictor.

Our model puts the chance at 36% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 26%; we judge it at 30%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.30. The offered 3.60 implies only 28%, so the price is 9.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.87 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Macarthur 1.61, Perth Glory 1.54.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Perth Glory	36.1%	2.77	3.70 BetVictor	27.0%	+9.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	82.8%	1.21	1.23 Betano	81.3%	+1.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	17.2%	5.81	4.50 Betfair	22.2%	-5.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	61.0%	1.64	1.70 Betano	58.8%	+2.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	39.0%	2.56	2.25 Betfair	44.4%	-5.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	38.7%	2.58	2.70 Betano	37.0%	+1.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	61.3%	1.63	1.50 Betano	66.7%	-5.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	63.4%	1.58	1.65 Betfair	60.6%	+2.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	36.6%	2.73	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	-5.4
Match result	Macarthur	39.2%	2.55	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-12.1
Match result	Draw	24.7%	4.05	3.85 Betano	26.0%	-1.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Macarthur v Perth Glory: too close to call

Our model makes Macarthur 39% to win this A-League fixture, with the draw at 25% and Perth Glory at 36%. The goal projection is 1.61 for Macarthur against 1.54 for Perth Glory — almost nothing to Macarthur on expected output. A combined 3.15 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 8%; 2-2 7%; 1-0 6%

This season

Season records for Macarthur and Perth Glory
Macarthur		Perth Glory
4	Played	4
1-2-1	W-D-L	2-0-2
1.25	Pts / game	1.50
1.00	Goals for / game	2.00
1.00	Goals against / game	1.25
50%	Over 2.5	100%
75%	BTTS	75%
25%	Clean sheets	25%
25%	Failed to score	0%
1-1-1	Home record	2-0-0
0-1-0	Away record	0-0-2
L1	Streak	W2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Macarthur · Perth Glory

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
8.0	Shots	10.5
3.5	Shots on target	4.8
4.5	Corners	3.3
2.00	Cards	1.00
11.0	Fouls	14.0
45	Possession %	39
0.84	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.8	Shots	13.5
4.8	Shots on target	4.3
4.5	Corners	5.3
1.75	Cards	2.50
15.8	Fouls	11.0
55	Possession %	61
1.52	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Macarthur	Metric	Perth Glory
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
1.40	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
1.60 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.34
	Big chances
4.67 (better)	Shots on target	3.00
17.00 (better)	Total shots	10.00
	Touches in opp. box
4.00 (better)	Corners	1.50
48.7 (better)	Possession %	33.0
381 (better)	Passes	310
	Tackles
10.33	Fouls	9.50 (better)
1.33 (better)	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
2.67 (better)	Yellow cards	3.00
	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Macarthur wins: 1
Draws: 1
Perth Glory wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.25
Over 2.5: 75%
Both score: 75%

Macarthur v Perth Glory2–12026-10-17
Perth Glory v Macarthur3–12026-04-12
Macarthur v Perth Glory2–22026-02-06
Macarthur v Perth Glory0–22025-11-30

A-League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Wellington Phoenix	4	3	1	0	+6	10	Wellington Phoenix won 3 of the last 4
2	Sydney	4	2	1	1	+3	7	Sydney won 2 of the last 4
3	Brisbane Roar	3	2	1	0	+2	7	Brisbane Roar won 2 of the last 3
4	Melbourne City	4	2	1	1	0	7	Melbourne City won 2 of the last 4
5	Perth Glory	4	2	0	2	+3	6	Perth Glory won 2 of the last 4
6	Western Sydney Wanderers	4	1	2	1	+2	5	Western Sydney Wanderers won 1 of the last 4
7	Macarthur	4	1	2	1	0	5	Macarthur won 1 of the last 4
8	Auckland	4	1	2	1	-1	5	Auckland won 1 of the last 4
9	Melbourne Victory	4	0	3	1	-1	3	Melbourne Victory won 0 of the last 4
10	Newcastle Jets	4	0	2	2	-4	2	Newcastle Jets won 0 of the last 4
11	Central Coast Mariners	4	0	2	2	-5	2	Central Coast Mariners won 0 of the last 4
12	Adelaide United	3	0	1	2	-5	1	Adelaide United won 0 of the last 3