KuPS v 
AC Oulu
Match statistics
| KuPS | AC Oulu | |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 0 | Offsides | 3 |
| 544 | Passes | 315 |
| 64% | Possession % | 36% |
| — | xG | — |
- Over 1.5
- 67%
- Over 2.5
- 39%
- Over 3.5
- 19%
- Both score
- 42%
- Model pick
- KuPS 54%
- Likely score
- 1-0 15%
- Expected goals
- 1.50 – 0.76
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5KuPS -0.5
Why this price?
Back KuPS -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.60 with Bet365 — KuPS must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 54% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 76%; we judge it at 67%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.49. The offered 1.60 implies only 63%, so the price is 7.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: KuPS 1.50, AC Oulu 0.76.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 1 of 5Under 2.5
Why this price?
Back under 2.5 goals at 1.93 with Betano — 2 goals or fewer in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 61% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 49%; we judge it at 54%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.85. The offered 1.93 implies only 52%, so the price is 4.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.11 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: KuPS 1.50, AC Oulu 0.76.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | KuPS | 54.1% | 1.85 | 1.55 Betano | 64.5% | -10.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 27.4% | 3.65 | 4.30 Dafabet | 23.3% | +4.2 |
| Match result | AC Oulu | 18.5% | 5.42 | 6.60 Dafabet | 15.2% | +3.3 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 66.6% | 1.50 | 1.31 Betano | 76.3% | -9.7 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 33.4% | 2.99 | 3.80 BetVictor | 26.3% | +7.1 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 39.3% | 2.54 | 1.95 Betfair | 51.3% | -11.9 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 60.7% | 1.65 | 2.05 Bet365 | 48.8% | +11.9 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 19.3% | 5.19 | 3.50 Betfair | 28.6% | -9.3 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 80.7% | 1.24 | 1.36 Bet365 | 73.5% | +7.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 42.0% | 2.38 | 2.05 Betfair | 48.8% | -6.8 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 58.0% | 1.73 | 1.85 William Hill | 54.1% | +3.9 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
KuPS favoured against AC Oulu
Our model makes KuPS 54% to win this Veikkausliiga fixture, with the draw at 27% and AC Oulu at 18%. The goal projection is 1.50 for KuPS against 0.76 for AC Oulu — a substantial edge to KuPS on expected output. A combined 2.26 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 39% and both teams to score at 42%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 15%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-0 15%
- 1-1 13%
- 2-0 12%
- 0-0 11%
- 2-1 9%
This season
| KuPS | AC Oulu | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Played | 32 |
| 14-11-7 | W-D-L | 14-6-12 |
| 1.66 | Pts / game | 1.50 |
| 1.44 | Goals for / game | 1.28 |
| 1.03 | Goals against / game | 1.25 |
| 34% | Over 2.5 | 41% |
| 53% | BTTS | 44% |
| 28% | Clean sheets | 38% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 28% |
| 7-6-3 | Home record | 7-3-6 |
| 7-5-4 | Away record | 7-3-6 |
| L2 | Streak | D1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. KuPS · AC Oulu
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 14.9 | Shots | 11.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.3 | Shots on target | 4.0 |
| 7.3 | Corners | 4.1 |
| 1.86 | Cards | 2.29 |
| 12.3 | Fouls | 11.1 |
| 57 | Possession % | 35 |
| 1.18 | xG | 1.13 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 9.6 | Shots | 19.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.6 | Shots on target | 5.4 |
| 2.7 | Corners | 8.4 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 0.29 |
| 13.4 | Fouls | 11.1 |
| 43 | Possession % | 65 |
| 1.23 | xG | 2.26 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| KuPS | Metric | AC Oulu |
|---|---|---|
| 0.80 (better) | Goals scored | 0.40 |
| 0.40 (better) | Goals conceded | 0.80 |
| Expected goals (xG) | ||
| Big chances | ||
| 3.00 | Shots on target | 3.67 (better) |
| 12.67 (better) | Total shots | 11.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.75 (better) | Corners | 3.67 |
| 52.5 (better) | Possession % | 50.7 |
| 530 (better) | Passes | 452 |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.00 | Fouls | 11.33 (better) |
| 1.25 (better) | Offsides | 3.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.25 (better) | Yellow cards | 1.67 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- KuPS wins
- 1
- Draws
- 1
- AC Oulu wins
- 3
- Goals / game
- 2.80
- Over 2.5
- 40%
- Both score
- 40%
- AC Oulu v KuPS2–02026-11-01
- KuPS v AC Oulu0–12026-10-08
- AC Oulu v KuPS2–02026-05-02
- KuPS v AC Oulu3–22026-04-22
- AC Oulu v KuPS2–22025-07-04
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Turku | 32 | 17 | 10 | 5 | +16 | 61 | Inter Turku won 3 of the last 5 |
| 2 | HJK Helsinki | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | +27 | 59 | HJK Helsinki won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | KuPS | 32 | 14 | 11 | 7 | +13 | 53 | KuPS won 1 of the last 5 |
| 4 | AC Oulu | 32 | 14 | 6 | 12 | +1 | 48 | AC Oulu won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Gnistan | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | +5 | 46 | Gnistan won 1 of the last 5 |
| 6 | VPS | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | -11 | 40 | VPS won 0 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Lahti | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | +9 | 39 | Lahti won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Ilves | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | +6 | 38 | Ilves won 4 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Turku PS | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -4 | 32 | Turku PS won 0 of the last 5 |
| 10 | SJK | 27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | -8 | 27 | SJK won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | FF Jaro | 29 | 5 | 10 | 14 | -26 | 25 | FF Jaro won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 27 | 4 | 7 | 16 | -27 | 19 | Mariehamn won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | PK-35 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | PK-35 won 0 of the last 2 |