AC Oulu v KuPS

4th2–03rd

13:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
AC Oulu		KuPS
11	Shots	19
4	Shots on target	5
1	Corners	10
12	Fouls	11
2	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	0
329	Passes	531
37%	Possession %	63%
1.10	xG	0.92

Over 1.5: 67%
Over 2.5: 40%
Over 3.5: 20%
Both score: 47%

Model pick: KuPS 39%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.06 – 1.21

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	AC Oulu	31.3%	3.20	4.90 Dafabet	20.4%	+10.8
Match result	Draw	29.8%	3.36	3.85 Dafabet	26.0%	+3.8
Match result	KuPS	39.0%	2.57	1.84 Dafabet	54.3%	-15.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	67.0%	1.49	1.20 Betano	83.3%	-16.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	33.0%	3.03	4.50 Bet365	22.2%	+10.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	39.7%	2.52	1.75 Betano	57.1%	-17.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	60.3%	1.66	2.25 Bet365	44.4%	+15.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	19.5%	5.12	2.88 BetVictor	34.7%	-15.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	80.5%	1.24	1.52 Betano	65.8%	+14.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	46.6%	2.15	1.72 Betano	58.1%	-11.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	53.4%	1.87	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	+9.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

KuPS favoured against AC Oulu

Our model makes AC Oulu 31% to win this Veikkausliiga fixture, with the draw at 30% and KuPS at 39%. The goal projection is 1.06 for AC Oulu against 1.21 for KuPS — a slight edge to KuPS on expected output. A combined 2.27 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 40% and both teams to score at 47%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 0-1 12%; 0-0 11%; 1-0 10%; 1-2 8%

This season

Season records for AC Oulu and KuPS
AC Oulu		KuPS
32	Played	32
14-6-12	W-D-L	14-11-7
1.50	Pts / game	1.66
1.28	Goals for / game	1.44
1.25	Goals against / game	1.03
41%	Over 2.5	34%
44%	BTTS	53%
38%	Clean sheets	28%
28%	Failed to score	25%
7-3-6	Home record	7-6-3
7-3-6	Away record	7-5-4
D1	Streak	L2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. AC Oulu · KuPS

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.1	Shots	14.9
4.0	Shots on target	5.3
4.1	Corners	7.3
2.29	Cards	1.86
11.1	Fouls	12.3
35	Possession %	57
1.13	xG	1.18
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
19.7	Shots	9.6
5.4	Shots on target	3.6
8.4	Corners	2.7
0.29	Cards	2.00
11.1	Fouls	13.4
65	Possession %	43
2.26	xG	1.23
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
AC Oulu	Metric	KuPS
1.60 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
0.90	Expected goals (xG)	1.28 (better)
	Big chances
3.40	Shots on target	4.00 (better)
8.60	Total shots	12.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
2.80	Corners	4.60 (better)
40.8	Possession %	50.4 (better)
285	Passes	470 (better)
	Tackles
8.60 (better)	Fouls	11.00
2.75	Offsides	1.50 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.80 (better)	Yellow cards	2.00
0.20 (better)	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

AC Oulu wins: 3
Draws: 1
KuPS wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.80
Over 2.5: 40%
Both score: 40%

AC Oulu v KuPS2–02026-11-01
KuPS v AC Oulu0–12026-10-08
AC Oulu v KuPS2–02026-05-02
KuPS v AC Oulu3–22026-04-22
AC Oulu v KuPS2–22025-07-04

Veikkausliiga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Inter Turku	32	17	10	5	+16	61	Inter Turku won 3 of the last 5
2	HJK Helsinki	32	17	8	7	+27	59	HJK Helsinki won 3 of the last 5
3	KuPS	32	14	11	7	+13	53	KuPS won 1 of the last 5
4	AC Oulu	32	14	6	12	+1	48	AC Oulu won 3 of the last 5
5	Gnistan	32	12	10	10	+5	46	Gnistan won 1 of the last 5
6	VPS	32	11	7	14	-11	40	VPS won 0 of the last 5
7	Lahti	27	11	6	10	+9	39	Lahti won 2 of the last 5
8	Ilves	27	11	5	11	+6	38	Ilves won 4 of the last 5
9	Turku PS	27	8	8	11	-4	32	Turku PS won 0 of the last 5
10	SJK	27	6	9	12	-8	27	SJK won 2 of the last 5
11	FF Jaro	29	5	10	14	-26	25	FF Jaro won 2 of the last 5
12	Mariehamn	27	4	7	16	-27	19	Mariehamn won 1 of the last 5
13	PK-35	2	0	1	1	-1	1	PK-35 won 0 of the last 2