Inter Turku v 
Gnistan
Match statistics
| Inter Turku | Gnistan | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Shots | 23 |
| 7 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 9 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 3 | Offsides | 3 |
| 400 | Passes | 312 |
| 59% | Possession % | 41% |
| 1.86 | xG | 2.19 |
- Over 1.5
- 73%
- Over 2.5
- 47%
- Over 3.5
- 25%
- Both score
- 49%
- Model pick
- Inter Turku 52%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.61 – 0.94
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 3 of 5Under 2.5
Why this price?
Back under 2.5 goals at 2.40 with Betfair — 2 goals or fewer in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 53% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 39%; we judge it at 45%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.23. The offered 2.40 implies only 42%, so the price is 7.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.36 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Inter Turku 1.61, Gnistan 0.94.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
VoidMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 3 of 5Inter Turku -1
Why this price?
Back Inter Turku -1 on the Asian handicap at 1.60 with Betano — Inter Turku must win by more than 1 goal.
Our model puts the chance at 37% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 86%; we judge it at 67%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.50. The offered 1.60 implies only 63%, so the price is 6.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Inter Turku 1.61, Gnistan 0.94.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Inter Turku | 52.5% | 1.91 | 1.43 Dafabet | 69.9% | -17.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 26.2% | 3.82 | 4.90 Dafabet | 20.4% | +5.7 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 72.7% | 1.38 | 1.20 Bet365 | 83.3% | -10.6 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 27.3% | 3.67 | 5.00 Bet365 | 20.0% | +7.3 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 46.7% | 2.14 | 1.65 Bet365 | 60.6% | -13.9 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 53.3% | 1.88 | 2.45 Betfair | 40.8% | +12.5 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 25.1% | 3.98 | 2.62 Bet365 | 38.2% | -13.0 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 74.9% | 1.34 | 1.57 Betano | 63.7% | +11.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 49.2% | 2.03 | 1.91 Bet365 | 52.4% | -3.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 50.8% | 1.97 | 2.10 Betfair | 47.6% | +3.2 |
| Match result | Gnistan | 21.4% | 4.67 | 7.20 Dafabet | 13.9% | +7.5 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Inter Turku favoured against Gnistan
Our model makes Inter Turku 52% to win this Veikkausliiga fixture, with the draw at 26% and Gnistan at 21%. The goal projection is 1.61 for Inter Turku against 0.94 for Gnistan — a substantial edge to Inter Turku on expected output. A combined 2.54 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 1-0 12%
- 2-0 10%
- 2-1 10%
- 0-0 8%
This season
| Inter Turku | Gnistan | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Played | 32 |
| 17-10-5 | W-D-L | 12-10-10 |
| 1.91 | Pts / game | 1.44 |
| 1.34 | Goals for / game | 1.63 |
| 0.84 | Goals against / game | 1.47 |
| 34% | Over 2.5 | 47% |
| 44% | BTTS | 59% |
| 53% | Clean sheets | 19% |
| 22% | Failed to score | 25% |
| 8-5-3 | Home record | 7-5-4 |
| 9-5-2 | Away record | 5-5-6 |
| W2 | Streak | W1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Inter Turku · Gnistan
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 13.4 | Shots | 13.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.3 | Shots on target | 4.9 |
| 5.1 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 1.57 | Cards | 1.43 |
| 10.7 | Fouls | 13.6 |
| 54 | Possession % | 44 |
| 1.54 | xG | 1.21 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 11.9 | Shots | 16.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.1 | Shots on target | 6.3 |
| 4.7 | Corners | 7.4 |
| 2.14 | Cards | 1.43 |
| 12.3 | Fouls | 11.6 |
| 46 | Possession % | 56 |
| 1.17 | xG | 1.99 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Inter Turku | Metric | Gnistan |
|---|---|---|
| 0.80 | Goals scored | 0.80 |
| 0.40 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.00 |
| 1.92 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 0.86 |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.80 (better) | Shots on target | 4.00 |
| 15.40 (better) | Total shots | 12.20 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.20 (better) | Corners | 4.80 |
| 60.4 (better) | Possession % | 44.4 |
| 539 (better) | Passes | 343 |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.00 (better) | Fouls | 13.20 |
| 1.80 (better) | Offsides | 2.20 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.40 | Yellow cards | 1.40 |
| 0.20 (better) | Red cards | 0.25 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Inter Turku wins
- 3
- Draws
- 1
- Gnistan wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 2.83
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Both score
- 50%
- Inter Turku v Gnistan4–32026-11-02
- Gnistan v Inter Turku0–02026-10-07
- Inter Turku v Gnistan1–22026-07-26
- Gnistan v Inter Turku2–02026-05-05
- Inter Turku v Gnistan2–12025-10-22
- Gnistan v Inter Turku0–22025-09-13
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Turku | 32 | 17 | 10 | 5 | +16 | 61 | Inter Turku won 3 of the last 5 |
| 2 | HJK Helsinki | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | +27 | 59 | HJK Helsinki won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | KuPS | 32 | 14 | 11 | 7 | +13 | 53 | KuPS won 1 of the last 5 |
| 4 | AC Oulu | 32 | 14 | 6 | 12 | +1 | 48 | AC Oulu won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Gnistan | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | +5 | 46 | Gnistan won 1 of the last 5 |
| 6 | VPS | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | -11 | 40 | VPS won 0 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Lahti | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | +9 | 39 | Lahti won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Ilves | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | +6 | 38 | Ilves won 4 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Turku PS | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -4 | 32 | Turku PS won 0 of the last 5 |
| 10 | SJK | 27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | -8 | 27 | SJK won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | FF Jaro | 29 | 5 | 10 | 14 | -26 | 25 | FF Jaro won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 27 | 4 | 7 | 16 | -27 | 19 | Mariehamn won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | PK-35 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | PK-35 won 0 of the last 2 |