Gnistan v Inter Turku

5th0–01st

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Gnistan		Inter Turku
11	Shots	17
2	Shots on target	3
5	Corners	8
10	Fouls	7
1	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	1
313	Passes	571
39%	Possession %	61%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 73%
Over 2.5: 48%
Over 3.5: 26%
Both score: 53%

Model pick: Inter Turku 38%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.24 – 1.33

Advised bets

Half wonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Inter Turku +0.25

1.60Betano · fair 1.53 · qualifies at 1.57+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Inter Turku +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.60 with Betano — Inter Turku starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 61% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 69%; we judge it at 65%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.53. The offered 1.60 implies only 63%, so the price is 4.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Gnistan 1.24, Inter Turku 1.33.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 2.5	52.4%	1.91	2.25 Bet365	44.4%	+8.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	25.9%	3.86	2.88 BetVictor	34.7%	-8.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	74.1%	1.35	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	+7.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	53.0%	1.89	1.70 Betano	58.8%	-5.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	47.0%	2.13	2.25 Betfair	44.4%	+2.5
Match result	Gnistan	34.0%	2.94	4.40 Betfair	22.7%	+11.2
Match result	Draw	27.8%	3.60	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	-0.8
Match result	Inter Turku	38.3%	2.61	1.91 William Hill	52.4%	-14.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	73.4%	1.36	1.22 Bet365	82.0%	-8.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	26.6%	3.76	4.50 Bet365	22.2%	+4.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	47.6%	2.10	1.75 Bet365	57.1%	-9.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Gnistan v Inter Turku: too close to call

Our model makes Gnistan 34% to win this Veikkausliiga fixture, with the draw at 28% and Inter Turku at 38%. The goal projection is 1.24 for Gnistan against 1.33 for Inter Turku — almost nothing to Inter Turku on expected output. A combined 2.58 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 10%; 1-0 9%; 1-2 8%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Gnistan and Inter Turku
Gnistan		Inter Turku
32	Played	32
12-10-10	W-D-L	17-10-5
1.44	Pts / game	1.91
1.63	Goals for / game	1.34
1.47	Goals against / game	0.84
47%	Over 2.5	34%
59%	BTTS	44%
19%	Clean sheets	53%
25%	Failed to score	22%
7-5-4	Home record	8-5-3
5-5-6	Away record	9-5-2
W1	Streak	W2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Gnistan · Inter Turku

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.1	Shots	13.4
4.9	Shots on target	4.3
5.3	Corners	5.1
1.43	Cards	1.57
13.6	Fouls	10.7
44	Possession %	54
1.21	xG	1.54
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.1	Shots	11.9
6.3	Shots on target	4.1
7.4	Corners	4.7
1.43	Cards	2.14
11.6	Fouls	12.3
56	Possession %	46
1.99	xG	1.17
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Gnistan	Metric	Inter Turku
1.60 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
1.20	Goals conceded	0.40 (better)
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
3.67	Shots on target	5.00 (better)
13.67 (better)	Total shots	10.67
	Touches in opp. box
4.67 (better)	Corners	3.33
43.0	Possession %	52.0 (better)
305	Passes	526 (better)
	Tackles
10.33 (better)	Fouls	11.67
1.67 (better)	Offsides	4.00
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.67 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Gnistan wins: 2
Draws: 1
Inter Turku wins: 3
Goals / game: 2.83
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 50%

Inter Turku v Gnistan4–32026-11-02
Gnistan v Inter Turku0–02026-10-07
Inter Turku v Gnistan1–22026-07-26
Gnistan v Inter Turku2–02026-05-05
Inter Turku v Gnistan2–12025-10-22
Gnistan v Inter Turku0–22025-09-13

Veikkausliiga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Inter Turku	32	17	10	5	+16	61	Inter Turku won 3 of the last 5
2	HJK Helsinki	32	17	8	7	+27	59	HJK Helsinki won 3 of the last 5
3	KuPS	32	14	11	7	+13	53	KuPS won 1 of the last 5
4	AC Oulu	32	14	6	12	+1	48	AC Oulu won 3 of the last 5
5	Gnistan	32	12	10	10	+5	46	Gnistan won 1 of the last 5
6	VPS	32	11	7	14	-11	40	VPS won 0 of the last 5
7	Lahti	27	11	6	10	+9	39	Lahti won 2 of the last 5
8	Ilves	27	11	5	11	+6	38	Ilves won 4 of the last 5
9	Turku PS	27	8	8	11	-4	32	Turku PS won 0 of the last 5
10	SJK	27	6	9	12	-8	27	SJK won 2 of the last 5
11	FF Jaro	29	5	10	14	-26	25	FF Jaro won 2 of the last 5
12	Mariehamn	27	4	7	16	-27	19	Mariehamn won 1 of the last 5
13	PK-35	2	0	1	1	-1	1	PK-35 won 0 of the last 2