Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest

20th3–116th

13:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Crystal Palace		Nottingham Forest
13	Shots	24
7	Shots on target	6
5	Corners	8
11	Fouls	10
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	1
386	Passes	498
43%	Possession %	57%
2.42	xG	2.98

Over 1.5: 69%
Over 2.5: 42%
Over 3.5: 21%
Both score: 49%

Model pick: Nottingham Forest 37%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.14 – 1.22

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	51.4%	1.95	2.25 Betfair	44.4%	+6.9
Match result	Crystal Palace	33.5%	2.99	2.88 Bet365	34.7%	-1.2
Match result	Draw	29.2%	3.42	3.40 BetVictor	29.4%	-0.2
Match result	Nottingham Forest	37.3%	2.68	2.70 Bet365	37.0%	+0.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	69.0%	1.45	1.30 Bet365	76.9%	-8.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	31.0%	3.22	3.80 BetVictor	26.3%	+4.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	42.0%	2.38	1.93 Betano	51.8%	-9.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	58.0%	1.73	1.95 Betano	51.3%	+6.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	21.3%	4.69	3.55 Betano	28.2%	-6.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	78.7%	1.27	1.38 Betano	72.5%	+6.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	48.6%	2.06	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-6.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest: too close to call

Our model makes Crystal Palace 33% to win this Premier League fixture, with the draw at 29% and Nottingham Forest at 37%. The goal projection is 1.14 for Crystal Palace against 1.22 for Nottingham Forest — almost nothing to Nottingham Forest on expected output. A combined 2.36 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 42% and both teams to score at 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 0-1 11%; 1-0 10%; 0-0 10%; 1-2 8%

This season

Season records for Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest
Crystal Palace		Nottingham Forest
10	Played	10
2-1-7	W-D-L	2-3-5
0.70	Pts / game	0.90
1.00	Goals for / game	0.90
2.40	Goals against / game	1.30
60%	Over 2.5	40%
50%	BTTS	50%
10%	Clean sheets	10%
50%	Failed to score	50%
1-0-4	Home record	1-1-3
1-1-3	Away record	1-2-2
L4	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Crystal Palace · Nottingham Forest

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.3	Shots	17.5
4.0	Shots on target	3.7
4.0	Corners	5.7
2.25	Cards	2.17
11.0	Fouls	12.8
44	Possession %	46
1.45	xG	1.54
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
19.7	Shots	9.7
6.0	Shots on target	3.2
8.3	Corners	3.8
2.33	Cards	0.83
11.5	Fouls	8.5
57	Possession %	54
2.26	xG	1.14
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Crystal Palace	Metric	Nottingham Forest
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.20
0.84	Expected goals (xG)	1.56 (better)
	Big chances
4.75 (better)	Shots on target	3.60
11.75	Total shots	15.60 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.00 (better)	Corners	3.40
47.5 (better)	Possession %	46.0
443 (better)	Passes	384
	Tackles
9.75 (better)	Fouls	15.00
1.75 (better)	Offsides	1.80
	Throw-ins
1.00 (better)	Yellow cards	3.00
0.50	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Crystal Palace wins: 1
Draws: 2
Nottingham Forest wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 100%

Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest3–12026-10-11
Nottingham Forest v Crystal Palace1–12026-02-01
Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest1–12025-08-24

Premier League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal	10	9	0	1	+10	27	Arsenal won 5 of the last 5
2	Brighton	10	7	1	2	+19	22	Brighton won 4 of the last 5
3	Manchester City	10	7	0	3	+8	21	Manchester City won 2 of the last 5
4	Liverpool	10	5	3	2	+4	18	Liverpool won 3 of the last 5
5	Chelsea	10	5	1	4	+3	16	Chelsea won 3 of the last 5
6	Everton	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Everton won 2 of the last 5
7	Bournemouth	10	4	3	3	+2	15	Bournemouth won 4 of the last 5
8	Brentford	10	3	5	2	+5	14	Brentford won 1 of the last 5
9	Leeds	10	3	5	2	+2	14	Leeds won 1 of the last 5
10	Aston Villa	10	3	4	3	-3	13	Aston Villa won 2 of the last 5
11	Tottenham	10	3	3	4	-1	12	Tottenham won 3 of the last 5
12	Newcastle	10	3	3	4	-3	12	Newcastle won 1 of the last 5
13	Hull City	10	2	5	3	0	11	Hull City won 0 of the last 5
14	Ipswich	10	3	2	5	-5	11	Ipswich won 1 of the last 5
15	Fulham	10	2	4	4	-2	10	Fulham won 2 of the last 5
16	Nottingham Forest	10	2	3	5	-4	9	Nottingham Forest won 1 of the last 5
17	Coventry	10	3	0	7	-9	9	Coventry won 2 of the last 5
18	Manchester United	10	1	5	4	-5	8	Manchester United won 0 of the last 5
19	Sunderland	10	2	2	6	-9	8	Sunderland won 1 of the last 5
20	Crystal Palace	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 5