Central Coast Mariners v 
Newcastle Jets
Match statistics
| Central Coast Mariners | Newcastle Jets | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Shots | 19 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| — | Red cards | — |
| 3 | Offsides | 2 |
| 375 | Passes | 545 |
| 41% | Possession % | 59% |
| — | xG | — |
- Over 1.5
- 89%
- Over 2.5
- 72%
- Over 3.5
- 51%
- Both score
- 71%
- Model pick
- Newcastle Jets 47%
- Likely score
- 1-1 9%
- Expected goals
- 1.67 – 2.06
Advised bets
Half lostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Central Coast Mariners -0.25
Why this price?
Back Central Coast Mariners -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 3.35 with BetVictor — Central Coast Mariners must win by more than 0.25 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 35% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 32%; we judge it at 33%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.03. The offered 3.35 implies only 30%, so the price is 10.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.13 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Central Coast Mariners 1.67, Newcastle Jets 2.06.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Central Coast Mariners | 31.2% | 3.20 | 4.20 Bet365 | 23.8% | +7.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 22.0% | 4.55 | 4.33 Betfair | 23.1% | -1.1 |
| Match result | Newcastle Jets | 46.8% | 2.14 | 1.80 Bet365 | 55.6% | -8.7 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 89.0% | 1.12 | 1.13 Betano | 88.5% | +0.5 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 11.0% | 9.09 | 6.50 Bet365 | 15.4% | -4.4 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 71.8% | 1.39 | 1.42 Betano | 70.4% | +1.4 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 28.2% | 3.55 | 2.95 Betano | 33.9% | -5.7 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 51.1% | 1.96 | 2.02 Betano | 49.5% | +1.6 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 48.9% | 2.04 | 1.83 Betano | 54.6% | -5.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 71.1% | 1.41 | 1.40 William Hill | 71.4% | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 28.9% | 3.46 | 2.88 BetVictor | 34.7% | -5.9 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Newcastle Jets favoured against Central Coast Mariners
Our model makes Central Coast Mariners 31% to win this A-League fixture, with the draw at 22% and Newcastle Jets at 47%. The goal projection is 1.67 for Central Coast Mariners against 2.06 for Newcastle Jets — a clear edge to Newcastle Jets on expected output. A combined 3.72 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 72% and both teams to score at 71%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 9%
- 1-2 9%
- 2-2 7%
- 2-1 7%
- 1-3 6%
This season
| Central Coast Mariners | Newcastle Jets | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Played | 4 |
| 0-2-2 | W-D-L | 0-2-2 |
| 0.50 | Pts / game | 0.50 |
| 1.00 | Goals for / game | 1.00 |
| 2.25 | Goals against / game | 2.00 |
| 50% | Over 2.5 | 75% |
| 75% | BTTS | 75% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 25% |
| 0-1-0 | Home record | 0-1-1 |
| 0-1-2 | Away record | 0-1-1 |
| L1 | Streak | L2 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Central Coast Mariners · Newcastle Jets
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 11.5 | Shots | 15.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 4.8 |
| 3.3 | Corners | 7.5 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 1.25 |
| 10.5 | Fouls | 11.5 |
| 53 | Possession % | 68 |
| — | xG | 1.52 |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Conceded
| 13.0 | Shots | 10.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 4.0 |
| 5.0 | Corners | 3.5 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 1.75 |
| 12.5 | Fouls | 11.3 |
| 47 | Possession % | 33 |
| — | xG | 0.84 |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Form comparison
| Central Coast Mariners | Metric | Newcastle Jets |
|---|---|---|
| 0.80 | Goals scored | 1.80 (better) |
| 2.80 | Goals conceded | 2.40 (better) |
| 0.40 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.86 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 2.00 | Shots on target | 4.75 (better) |
| 11.00 | Total shots | 13.75 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.00 | Corners | 5.00 (better) |
| 46.0 | Possession % | 47.8 (better) |
| 419 | Passes | 535 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 10.00 (better) | Fouls | 13.50 |
| 3.00 | Offsides | 1.50 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.00 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.25 |
| Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Central Coast Mariners wins
- 1
- Draws
- 2
- Newcastle Jets wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 3.25
- Over 2.5
- 75%
- Both score
- 50%
- Central Coast Mariners v Newcastle Jets2–22026-10-17
- Newcastle Jets v Central Coast Mariners4–02026-04-25
- Central Coast Mariners v Newcastle Jets0–02026-02-28
- Central Coast Mariners v Newcastle Jets3–22025-10-19
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Phoenix | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 10 | Wellington Phoenix won 3 of the last 4 |
| 2 | Sydney | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 | Sydney won 2 of the last 4 |
| 3 | Brisbane Roar | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 | Brisbane Roar won 2 of the last 3 |
| 4 | Melbourne City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | Melbourne City won 2 of the last 4 |
| 5 | Perth Glory | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 6 | Perth Glory won 2 of the last 4 |
| 6 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 5 | Western Sydney Wanderers won 1 of the last 4 |
| 7 | Macarthur | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | Macarthur won 1 of the last 4 |
| 8 | Auckland | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 | Auckland won 1 of the last 4 |
| 9 | Melbourne Victory | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 | Melbourne Victory won 0 of the last 4 |
| 10 | Newcastle Jets | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 | Newcastle Jets won 0 of the last 4 |
| 11 | Central Coast Mariners | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 | Central Coast Mariners won 0 of the last 4 |
| 12 | Adelaide United | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 | Adelaide United won 0 of the last 3 |