Brisbane Roar v Perth Glory

3rd2–15th

09:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Brisbane Roar		Perth Glory
14	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	1
5	Corners	2
16	Fouls	7
4	Yellow cards	1
—	Red cards	—
2	Offsides	2
551	Passes	420
57%	Possession %	43%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 75%
Over 2.5: 50%
Over 3.5: 28%
Both score: 55%

Model pick: Perth Glory 38%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.31 – 1.37

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Perth Glory

3.30Betfair · fair 3.09 · qualifies at 3.18+ · 0.75u

Why this price?

Back Perth Glory to win at 3.30 with Betfair.

Our model puts the chance at 38% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 29%; we judge it at 32%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.09. The offered 3.30 implies only 30%, so the price is 6.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.75 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Brisbane Roar 1.31, Perth Glory 1.37.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Brisbane Roar	35.1%	2.85	2.27 Betano	44.1%	-9.0
Match result	Draw	27.1%	3.68	3.60 Betfair	27.8%	-0.6
Match result	Perth Glory	37.8%	2.65	3.30 Bet365	30.3%	+7.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	75.4%	1.33	1.28 Betano	78.1%	-2.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	24.6%	4.06	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	+0.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	50.2%	1.99	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	-3.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	49.8%	2.01	2.00 Betano	50.0%	-0.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	28.2%	3.55	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	-4.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	71.8%	1.39	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	+0.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	55.1%	1.81	1.73 Betfair	57.8%	-2.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	44.9%	2.23	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	+1.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Brisbane Roar v Perth Glory: too close to call

Our model makes Brisbane Roar 35% to win this A-League fixture, with the draw at 27% and Perth Glory at 38%. The goal projection is 1.31 for Brisbane Roar against 1.37 for Perth Glory — almost nothing to Perth Glory on expected output. A combined 2.68 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 9%; 1-2 8%; 1-0 8%; 2-1 8%

This season

Season records for Brisbane Roar and Perth Glory
Brisbane Roar		Perth Glory
3	Played	4
2-1-0	W-D-L	2-0-2
2.33	Pts / game	1.50
1.67	Goals for / game	2.00
1.00	Goals against / game	1.25
67%	Over 2.5	100%
100%	BTTS	75%
0%	Clean sheets	25%
0%	Failed to score	0%
1-1-0	Home record	2-0-0
1-0-0	Away record	0-0-2
W1	Streak	W2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Brisbane Roar · Perth Glory

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.0	Shots	10.5
4.7	Shots on target	4.8
6.7	Corners	3.3
3.00	Cards	1.00
13.7	Fouls	14.0
58	Possession %	39
—	xG	—
3 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.3	Shots	13.5
2.7	Shots on target	4.3
2.7	Corners	5.3
1.00	Cards	2.50
9.3	Fouls	11.0
42	Possession %	61
—	xG	—
3 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Brisbane Roar	Metric	Perth Glory
3.40 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
1.40	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
	Expected goals (xG)	1.34
	Big chances
	Shots on target	3.00
	Total shots	10.00
	Touches in opp. box
	Corners	1.50
	Possession %	33.0
	Passes	310
	Tackles
	Fouls	9.50
	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
	Yellow cards	3.00
	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Brisbane Roar wins: 2
Draws: 1
Perth Glory wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.75
Over 2.5: 75%
Both score: 100%

Brisbane Roar v Perth Glory2–12026-10-23
Perth Glory v Brisbane Roar2–12026-04-25
Brisbane Roar v Perth Glory1–12026-02-28
Perth Glory v Brisbane Roar1–22026-01-16

A-League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Wellington Phoenix	4	3	1	0	+6	10	Wellington Phoenix won 3 of the last 4
2	Sydney	4	2	1	1	+3	7	Sydney won 2 of the last 4
3	Brisbane Roar	3	2	1	0	+2	7	Brisbane Roar won 2 of the last 3
4	Melbourne City	4	2	1	1	0	7	Melbourne City won 2 of the last 4
5	Perth Glory	4	2	0	2	+3	6	Perth Glory won 2 of the last 4
6	Western Sydney Wanderers	4	1	2	1	+2	5	Western Sydney Wanderers won 1 of the last 4
7	Macarthur	4	1	2	1	0	5	Macarthur won 1 of the last 4
8	Auckland	4	1	2	1	-1	5	Auckland won 1 of the last 4
9	Melbourne Victory	4	0	3	1	-1	3	Melbourne Victory won 0 of the last 4
10	Newcastle Jets	4	0	2	2	-4	2	Newcastle Jets won 0 of the last 4
11	Central Coast Mariners	4	0	2	2	-5	2	Central Coast Mariners won 0 of the last 4
12	Adelaide United	3	0	1	2	-5	1	Adelaide United won 0 of the last 3