Brisbane Roar v Auckland

3rd1–18th

09:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Brisbane Roar		Auckland
19	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	1
12	Corners	3
10	Fouls	8
2	Yellow cards	1
—	Red cards	—
2	Offsides	3
611	Passes	274
69%	Possession %	31%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 52%
Over 3.5: 30%
Both score: 54%

Model pick: Auckland 51%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.07 – 1.69

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Brisbane Roar -0.5

3.35Betano · fair 3.08 · qualifies at 3.17+ · 0.93u

Why this price?

Back Brisbane Roar -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 3.35 with Betano — Brisbane Roar must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 24% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 38%; we judge it at 32%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.08. The offered 3.35 implies only 30%, so the price is 8.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.93 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Brisbane Roar 1.07, Auckland 1.69.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Brisbane Roar	23.5%	4.25	3.25 Betano	30.8%	-7.2
Match result	Draw	25.2%	3.96	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	-3.3
Match result	Auckland	51.2%	1.95	2.55 Bet365	39.2%	+12.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	76.9%	1.30	1.30 BetVictor	76.9%	-0.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	23.1%	4.33	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	-3.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	52.3%	1.91	1.98 Betano	50.5%	+1.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	47.7%	2.09	1.95 Betano	51.3%	-3.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	30.1%	3.33	3.40 Betfair	29.4%	+0.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	69.9%	1.43	1.37 Betano	73.0%	-3.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	54.3%	1.84	1.75 Bet365	57.1%	-2.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	45.7%	2.19	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	+0.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Auckland favoured against Brisbane Roar

Our model makes Brisbane Roar 24% to win this A-League fixture, with the draw at 25% and Auckland at 51%. The goal projection is 1.07 for Brisbane Roar against 1.69 for Auckland — a substantial edge to Auckland on expected output. A combined 2.77 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 0-1 10%; 1-2 10%; 0-2 9%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for Brisbane Roar and Auckland
Brisbane Roar		Auckland
3	Played	4
2-1-0	W-D-L	1-2-1
2.33	Pts / game	1.25
1.67	Goals for / game	1.50
1.00	Goals against / game	1.75
67%	Over 2.5	50%
100%	BTTS	75%
0%	Clean sheets	25%
0%	Failed to score	25%
1-1-0	Home record	1-1-0
1-0-0	Away record	0-1-1
W1	Streak	D2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Brisbane Roar · Auckland

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.0	Shots	12.5
4.7	Shots on target	3.0
6.7	Corners	4.8
3.00	Cards	1.67
13.7	Fouls	10.5
58	Possession %	43
—	xG	—
3 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.3	Shots	14.3
2.7	Shots on target	4.3
2.7	Corners	7.0
1.00	Cards	1.67
9.3	Fouls	10.5
42	Possession %	58
—	xG	—
3 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Brisbane Roar	Metric	Auckland
3.40 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
1.40	Goals conceded	1.40
	Expected goals (xG)	0.39
	Big chances
	Shots on target	3.00
	Total shots	8.67
	Touches in opp. box
	Corners	2.67
	Possession %	37.3
	Passes	268
	Tackles
	Fouls	12.67
	Offsides	1.33
	Throw-ins
	Yellow cards	3.00
	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Brisbane Roar wins: 0
Draws: 2
Auckland wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 67%

A-League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Wellington Phoenix	4	3	1	0	+6	10	Wellington Phoenix won 3 of the last 4
2	Sydney	4	2	1	1	+3	7	Sydney won 2 of the last 4
3	Brisbane Roar	3	2	1	0	+2	7	Brisbane Roar won 2 of the last 3
4	Melbourne City	4	2	1	1	0	7	Melbourne City won 2 of the last 4
5	Perth Glory	4	2	0	2	+3	6	Perth Glory won 2 of the last 4
6	Western Sydney Wanderers	4	1	2	1	+2	5	Western Sydney Wanderers won 1 of the last 4
7	Macarthur	4	1	2	1	0	5	Macarthur won 1 of the last 4
8	Auckland	4	1	2	1	-1	5	Auckland won 1 of the last 4
9	Melbourne Victory	4	0	3	1	-1	3	Melbourne Victory won 0 of the last 4
10	Newcastle Jets	4	0	2	2	-4	2	Newcastle Jets won 0 of the last 4
11	Central Coast Mariners	4	0	2	2	-5	2	Central Coast Mariners won 0 of the last 4
12	Adelaide United	3	0	1	2	-5	1	Adelaide United won 0 of the last 3