Brighton v Aston Villa prediction, stats and odds

Advised bets

The forecast for this fixture is published at least 24 hours before kick-off.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Not published yet.

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a bet is only advised where the gap clears our threshold after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

This season

Season records for Brighton and Aston Villa
Brighton		Aston Villa
5	Played	5
3-1-1	W-D-L	1-1-3
2.00	Pts / game	0.80
3.20	Goals for / game	0.80
1.00	Goals against / game	1.80
80%	Over 2.5	60%
40%	BTTS	40%
60%	Clean sheets	20%
0%	Failed to score	60%
2-1-0	Home record	0-0-2
1-0-1	Away record	1-1-1
W2	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Brighton · Aston Villa

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.0	Shots	15.0
5.0	Shots on target	6.0
5.0	Corners	1.0
4.00	Cards	2.00
13.0	Fouls	13.0
40	Possession %	36
—	xG	1.16
1 matches	sample	1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.0	Shots	20.0
2.0	Shots on target	7.0
6.0	Corners	11.0
1.00	Cards	1.00
11.0	Fouls	9.0
60	Possession %	64
—	xG	1.56
1 matches	sample	1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches, captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Brighton	Metric	Aston Villa
	Goals scored
	Goals conceded
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
	Shots on target
	Total shots
	Touches in opp. box
	Corners
	Possession %
	Passes
	Tackles
	Fouls
	Offsides
	Throw-ins
	Yellow cards
	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to headFull record →

Brighton wins: 1
Draws: 0
Aston Villa wins: 2
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 33%

Brighton v Aston Villa4–02026-08-23
Aston Villa v Brighton1–02026-02-11
Brighton v Aston Villa3–42025-12-03

Premier League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Manchester City	5	5	0	0	+8	15	Manchester City won 5 of the last 5
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	+4	12	Arsenal won 4 of the last 5
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	+11	10	Brighton won 3 of the last 5
4	Brentford	5	2	3	0	+6	9	Brentford won 2 of the last 5
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	+4	9	Leeds won 2 of the last 5
6	Liverpool	5	2	3	0	+3	9	Liverpool won 2 of the last 5
7	Everton	5	2	3	0	+3	9	Everton won 2 of the last 5
8	Hull City	5	2	2	1	+2	8	Hull City won 2 of the last 5
9	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	0	8	Newcastle won 2 of the last 5
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	-2	7	Chelsea won 2 of the last 5
11	Ipswich	5	2	0	3	-4	6	Ipswich won 2 of the last 5
12	Manchester United	5	1	2	2	0	5	Manchester United won 1 of the last 5
13	Nottingham Forest	5	1	2	2	-1	5	Nottingham Forest won 1 of the last 5
14	Sunderland	5	1	1	3	-4	4	Sunderland won 1 of the last 5
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	-5	4	Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 5
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	-5	4	Aston Villa won 1 of the last 5
17	Bournemouth	5	0	3	2	-2	3	Bournemouth won 0 of the last 5
18	Coventry	5	1	0	4	-9	3	Coventry won 1 of the last 5
19	Fulham	5	0	2	3	-3	2	Fulham won 0 of the last 5
20	Tottenham	5	0	2	3	-6	2	Tottenham won 0 of the last 5