Borussia Dortmund v 
Werder Bremen
Match statistics
| Borussia Dortmund | Werder Bremen | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 612 | Passes | 480 |
| 56% | Possession % | 44% |
| 1.44 | xG | 1.59 |
- Over 1.5
- 77%
- Over 2.5
- 52%
- Over 3.5
- 30%
- Both score
- 54%
- Model pick
- Borussia Dortmund 50%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.66 – 1.09
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Under 2.5
Why this price?
Back under 2.5 goals at 2.75 with Betano — 2 goals or fewer in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 48% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 35%; we judge it at 40%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.48. The offered 2.75 implies only 36%, so the price is 10.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.56 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Borussia Dortmund 1.66, Werder Bremen 1.09.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Borussia Dortmund | 50.0% | 2.00 | 1.45 Dafabet | 69.0% | -19.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 25.5% | 3.92 | 5.40 Dafabet | 18.5% | +7.0 |
| Match result | Werder Bremen | 24.5% | 4.08 | 7.00 Bet365 | 14.3% | +10.2 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 76.7% | 1.30 | 1.12 Bet365 | 89.3% | -12.6 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 23.3% | 4.29 | 7.50 Betfair | 13.3% | +10.0 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 52.0% | 1.92 | 1.44 Bet365 | 69.4% | -17.5 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 48.0% | 2.08 | 3.20 Betfair | 31.3% | +16.8 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 29.8% | 3.35 | 2.10 Bet365 | 47.6% | -17.8 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 70.2% | 1.43 | 1.87 Betano | 53.5% | +16.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 54.5% | 1.84 | 1.73 Betfair | 57.8% | -3.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 45.5% | 2.20 | 2.50 William Hill | 40.0% | +5.5 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Borussia Dortmund favoured against Werder Bremen
Our model makes Borussia Dortmund 50% to win this DFB Pokal fixture, with the draw at 26% and Werder Bremen at 24%. The goal projection is 1.66 for Borussia Dortmund against 1.09 for Werder Bremen — a substantial edge to Borussia Dortmund on expected output. A combined 2.75 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 1-0 10%
- 2-1 10%
- 2-0 9%
- 0-0 7%
This season
| Borussia Dortmund | Werder Bremen | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Played | 9 |
| 6-3-0 | W-D-L | 4-3-2 |
| 2.33 | Pts / game | 1.67 |
| 1.78 | Goals for / game | 1.89 |
| 0.78 | Goals against / game | 1.67 |
| 56% | Over 2.5 | 67% |
| 44% | BTTS | 78% |
| 56% | Clean sheets | 11% |
| 11% | Failed to score | 11% |
| 4-1-0 | Home record | 3-1-0 |
| 2-2-0 | Away record | 1-2-2 |
| W1 | Streak | L1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Borussia Dortmund · Werder Bremen
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 15.0 | Shots | 17.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.9 | Shots on target | 7.0 |
| 5.9 | Corners | 4.6 |
| 2.29 | Cards | 1.86 |
| 11.1 | Fouls | 9.1 |
| 55 | Possession % | 48 |
| 1.49 | xG | 1.86 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 13.3 | Shots | 14.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.3 | Shots on target | 5.1 |
| 4.1 | Corners | 4.6 |
| 1.86 | Cards | 1.29 |
| 10.7 | Fouls | 10.4 |
| 45 | Possession % | 52 |
| 1.72 | xG | 1.45 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Borussia Dortmund | Metric | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored | 1.60 (better) |
| 0.60 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.80 |
| 1.49 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.06 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.00 | Shots on target | 7.75 (better) |
| 13.40 | Total shots | 15.75 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.60 (better) | Corners | 3.75 |
| 57.0 (better) | Possession % | 52.0 |
| 579 (better) | Passes | 535 |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.20 | Fouls | 10.75 (better) |
| 1.80 (better) | Offsides | 2.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.60 | Yellow cards | 1.25 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Borussia Dortmund wins
- 3
- Draws
- 1
- Werder Bremen wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 3.50
- Over 2.5
- 75%
- Both score
- 50%
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