Australia U23 v 
Korea Republic U23
- Over 1.5
- 81%
- Over 2.5
- 59%
- Over 3.5
- 36%
- Both score
- 61%
- Model pick
- Australia U23 47%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.75 – 1.30
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the marketFree
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Australia U23 | 47.4% | 2.11 | — | — | — |
| Match result | Draw | 24.7% | 4.05 | — | — | — |
| Match result | Korea Republic U23 | 27.8% | 3.59 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 81.5% | 1.23 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 18.5% | 5.40 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 41.2% | 2.43 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 36.4% | 2.75 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 63.6% | 1.57 | — | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 39.3% | 2.55 | — | — | — |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a bet is only advised where the gap clears our threshold after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Premium markets
No premium selection on this fixture yet- Asian handicap
- Total goals
The model prices these markets for every fixture. Where a price clears the value threshold, patrons see the selection, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning behind it.
Australia U23 favoured against Korea Republic U23
Our model makes Australia U23 47% to win this Friendlies fixture, with the draw at 25% and Korea Republic U23 at 28%. The goal projection is 1.75 for Australia U23 against 1.30 for Korea Republic U23 — a clear edge to Australia U23 on expected output. A combined 3.05 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-0 8%
- 2-0 7%
- 1-2 7%
This season
| Australia U23 | Korea Republic U23 | |
|---|---|---|
| — | Played | 5 |
| — | W-D-L | 2-1-2 |
| — | Pts / game | 1.40 |
| — | Goals for / game | 1.40 |
| — | Goals against / game | 1.80 |
| — | Over 2.5 | 60% |
| — | BTTS | 80% |
| — | Clean sheets | 0% |
| — | Failed to score | 20% |
| — | Home record | 1-1-2 |
| — | Away record | 1-0-0 |
| — | Streak | L1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Australia U23 · Korea Republic U23
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
No full-match statistics on record yet this season.
Conceded
No full-match statistics on record yet this season.
Form comparison
| Australia U23 | Metric | Korea Republic U23 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored | 2.40 (better) |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded | 0.60 (better) |
| Expected goals (xG) | ||
| Big chances | ||
| Shots on target | 8.00 | |
| Total shots | 13.00 | |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| Corners | 4.00 | |
| Possession % | 45.0 | |
| Passes | ||
| Tackles | ||
| Fouls | ||
| Offsides | 0.00 | |
| Throw-ins | ||
| Yellow cards | 1.00 | |
| Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to headFull record →
No previous meetings on record.