Auckland won 1 of the last 4DDLW8th0–0Wellington Phoenix won 3 of the last 4DWWW1st
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Auckland
Wellington Phoenix
18
Shots
9
3
Shots on target
2
7
Corners
3
10
Fouls
13
2
Yellow cards
2
—
Red cards
—
—
Offsides
—
409
Passes
280
59%
Possession %
41%
—
xG
—
52%
23%
25%
1 · AucklandXWellington Phoenix · 2
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
41%
Both score
63%
Model pick
Auckland 52%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.32
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Auckland
51.5%
1.94
2.27 Betano
44.1%
+7.5
Match result
Draw
23.0%
4.34
3.70 Betano
27.0%
-4.0
Match result
Wellington Phoenix
25.5%
3.93
3.35 Betano
29.9%
-4.4
Total goals
Over 1.5
84.2%
1.19
1.28 Betano
78.1%
+6.1
Total goals
Under 1.5
15.8%
6.33
4.10 Betfair
24.4%
-8.6
Total goals
Over 2.5
63.4%
1.58
1.85 Betano
54.1%
+9.3
Total goals
Under 2.5
36.6%
2.73
2.00 Bet365
50.0%
-13.4
Total goals
Over 3.5
41.2%
2.43
3.10 Betfair
32.3%
+9.0
Total goals
Under 3.5
58.8%
1.70
1.40 Bet365
71.4%
-12.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
63.3%
1.58
1.72 Betano
58.1%
+5.2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
36.7%
2.73
2.20 Betfair
45.5%
-8.8
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Auckland favoured against Wellington Phoenix
Our model makes Auckland 52% to win this A-League fixture, with the draw at 23% and Wellington Phoenix at 25%. The goal projection is 1.95 for Auckland against 1.32 for Wellington Phoenix — a substantial edge to Auckland on expected output. A combined 3.27 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 63% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 10%
2-1 10%
2-0 7%
1-0 7%
1-2 6%
This season
Season records for Auckland and Wellington Phoenix
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Auckland
Metric
Wellington Phoenix
1.40 (better)
Goals scored
1.20
2.20
Goals conceded
1.60 (better)
0.92
Expected goals (xG)
1.18 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
3.00
Shots on target
3.60 (better)
9.75
Total shots
11.80 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.25
Corners
6.40 (better)
35.8
Possession %
44.2 (better)
275
Passes
348 (better)
—
Tackles
—
11.25 (better)
Fouls
11.40
1.50 (better)
Offsides
1.60
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.67
Yellow cards
1.00 (better)
1.00
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Auckland v 
Wellington Phoenix