Auckland won 1 of the last 4DDLW8th3–1Melbourne City won 2 of the last 4WWDL4th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Auckland
Melbourne City
11
Shots
15
4
Shots on target
5
3
Corners
6
13
Fouls
10
2
Yellow cards
1
—
Red cards
—
2
Offsides
3
324
Passes
450
42%
Possession %
58%
—
xG
—
40%
28%
31%
1 · AucklandXMelbourne City · 2
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
23%
Both score
50%
Model pick
Auckland 40%
Likely score
1-1 14%
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.13
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Total goals
Under 3.5
76.9%
1.30
1.33 Bet365
75.2%
+1.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
50.2%
1.99
1.80 Bet365
55.6%
-5.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
49.8%
2.01
2.05 BetVictor
48.8%
+1.0
Match result
Auckland
40.3%
2.48
2.57 Betano
38.9%
+1.4
Match result
Draw
28.5%
3.51
3.35 Dafabet
29.9%
-1.4
Match result
Melbourne City
31.2%
3.20
2.90 William Hill
34.5%
-3.2
Total goals
Over 1.5
70.8%
1.41
1.35 Betano
74.1%
-3.3
Total goals
Under 1.5
29.2%
3.43
3.50 Bet365
28.6%
+0.6
Total goals
Over 2.5
44.3%
2.26
2.07 Betano
48.3%
-4.0
Total goals
Under 2.5
55.7%
1.79
1.91 Bet365
52.4%
+3.4
Total goals
Over 3.5
23.1%
4.32
3.60 Betfair
27.8%
-4.6
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Auckland favoured against Melbourne City
Our model makes Auckland 40% to win this A-League fixture, with the draw at 28% and Melbourne City at 31%. The goal projection is 1.32 for Auckland against 1.13 for Melbourne City — a slight edge to Auckland on expected output. A combined 2.45 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 44% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Auckland
Metric
Melbourne City
1.00
Goals scored
1.20 (better)
1.20
Goals conceded
1.00 (better)
1.21
Expected goals (xG)
1.55 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
3.33
Shots on target
4.00 (better)
9.00
Total shots
17.00 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.00
Corners
6.00 (better)
36.0
Possession %
53.0 (better)
247
Passes
518 (better)
—
Tackles
—
13.00 (better)
Fouls
16.00
1.67 (better)
Offsides
2.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
3.00
Yellow cards
1.00 (better)
1.00
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Auckland v 
Melbourne City