Aston Villa v Brentford

10th2–28th

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Aston Villa		Brentford
20	Shots	14
7	Shots on target	4
2	Corners	2
7	Fouls	24
2	Yellow cards	5
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
402	Passes	361
52%	Possession %	48%
1.84	xG	1.31

Over 1.5: 81%
Over 2.5: 59%
Over 3.5: 36%
Both score: 62%

Model pick: Brentford 38%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.50 – 1.55

Advised bets

Half lostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Aston Villa -0.25

2.27Betano · fair 2.17 · qualifies at 2.24+ · 0.89u

Why this price?

Back Aston Villa -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.27 with Betano — Aston Villa must win by more than 0.25 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 42% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 49%; we judge it at 46%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.17. The offered 2.27 implies only 44%, so the price is 4.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.89 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Aston Villa 1.50, Brentford 1.55.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Aston Villa	36.3%	2.76	2.88 Bet365	34.7%	+1.5
Match result	Draw	25.4%	3.93	3.60 BetVictor	27.8%	-2.4
Match result	Brentford	38.3%	2.61	2.60 Betfair	38.5%	-0.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	81.4%	1.23	1.23 Betano	81.3%	+0.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	18.6%	5.37	4.80 BetVictor	20.8%	-2.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	41.4%	2.42	2.25 Betfair	44.4%	-3.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	36.2%	2.76	2.80 Betfair	35.7%	+0.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	63.8%	1.57	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	-2.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	61.7%	1.62	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	-1.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	38.3%	2.61	2.60 Betfair	38.5%	-0.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	58.6%	1.71	1.73 Bet365	57.8%	+0.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Aston Villa v Brentford: too close to call

Our model makes Aston Villa 36% to win this Premier League fixture, with the draw at 25% and Brentford at 38%. The goal projection is 1.50 for Aston Villa against 1.55 for Brentford — almost nothing to Brentford on expected output. A combined 3.04 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 8%; 0-1 7%; 1-0 6%

This season

Season records for Aston Villa and Brentford
Aston Villa		Brentford
10	Played	10
3-4-3	W-D-L	3-5-2
1.30	Pts / game	1.40
1.40	Goals for / game	1.60
1.70	Goals against / game	1.10
60%	Over 2.5	50%
60%	BTTS	60%
20%	Clean sheets	30%
30%	Failed to score	10%
1-2-2	Home record	3-1-1
2-2-1	Away record	0-4-1
D2	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Aston Villa · Brentford

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.3	Shots	10.5
4.5	Shots on target	3.2
3.3	Corners	3.5
2.00	Cards	2.67
11.3	Fouls	10.5
44	Possession %	42
1.68	xG	1.07
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.5	Shots	16.7
5.5	Shots on target	3.8
6.5	Corners	6.5
3.33	Cards	2.00
15.7	Fouls	10.8
56	Possession %	58
1.94	xG	1.68
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Aston Villa	Metric	Brentford
2.60 (better)	Goals scored	1.80
1.60	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
1.73 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.51
	Big chances
7.25 (better)	Shots on target	4.60
15.25	Total shots	15.80 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.25 (better)	Corners	4.40
46.0	Possession %	48.0 (better)
402	Passes	434 (better)
	Tackles
12.50 (better)	Fouls	13.20
1.50	Offsides	1.20 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.50	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Aston Villa wins: 0
Draws: 2
Brentford wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 25%
Both score: 50%

Aston Villa v Brentford2–22026-10-10
Aston Villa v Brentford0–12026-02-01
Brentford v Aston Villa1–12025-09-16
Brentford v Aston Villa1–02025-08-23

Premier League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal	10	9	0	1	+10	27	Arsenal won 5 of the last 5
2	Brighton	10	7	1	2	+19	22	Brighton won 4 of the last 5
3	Manchester City	10	7	0	3	+8	21	Manchester City won 2 of the last 5
4	Liverpool	10	5	3	2	+4	18	Liverpool won 3 of the last 5
5	Chelsea	10	5	1	4	+3	16	Chelsea won 3 of the last 5
6	Everton	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Everton won 2 of the last 5
7	Bournemouth	10	4	3	3	+2	15	Bournemouth won 4 of the last 5
8	Brentford	10	3	5	2	+5	14	Brentford won 1 of the last 5
9	Leeds	10	3	5	2	+2	14	Leeds won 1 of the last 5
10	Aston Villa	10	3	4	3	-3	13	Aston Villa won 2 of the last 5
11	Tottenham	10	3	3	4	-1	12	Tottenham won 3 of the last 5
12	Newcastle	10	3	3	4	-3	12	Newcastle won 1 of the last 5
13	Hull City	10	2	5	3	0	11	Hull City won 0 of the last 5
14	Ipswich	10	3	2	5	-5	11	Ipswich won 1 of the last 5
15	Fulham	10	2	4	4	-2	10	Fulham won 2 of the last 5
16	Nottingham Forest	10	2	3	5	-4	9	Nottingham Forest won 1 of the last 5
17	Coventry	10	3	0	7	-9	9	Coventry won 2 of the last 5
18	Manchester United	10	1	5	4	-5	8	Manchester United won 0 of the last 5
19	Sunderland	10	2	2	6	-9	8	Sunderland won 1 of the last 5
20	Crystal Palace	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 5