Arsenal v 
Leeds
Match statistics
| Arsenal | Leeds | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 7 | Offsides | 4 |
| 512 | Passes | 356 |
| 58% | Possession % | 42% |
| 2.66 | xG | 0.74 |
- Over 1.5
- 77%
- Over 2.5
- 52%
- Over 3.5
- 30%
- Both score
- 55%
- Model pick
- Arsenal 49%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.64 – 1.11
Advised bets
Half wonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 2 of 5Arsenal -0.75
Why this price?
Back Arsenal -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.50 with Betano — Arsenal must win by more than 0.75 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 42% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 88%; we judge it at 70%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.44. The offered 1.50 implies only 67%, so the price is 4.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Arsenal 1.64, Leeds 1.11.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Arsenal | 48.9% | 2.05 | 1.45 Betano | 69.0% | -20.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 26.0% | 3.85 | 5.00 Betfair | 20.0% | +6.0 |
| Match result | Leeds | 25.1% | 3.98 | 8.50 Bet365 | 11.8% | +13.4 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 76.6% | 1.30 | 1.28 Bet365 | 78.1% | -1.5 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 23.4% | 4.28 | 4.33 Bet365 | 23.1% | +0.3 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 51.7% | 1.93 | 1.83 Betano | 54.6% | -2.9 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 48.3% | 2.07 | 2.07 Betano | 48.3% | -0.0 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 29.6% | 3.38 | 3.00 Bet365 | 33.3% | -3.7 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 70.4% | 1.42 | 1.44 Bet365 | 69.4% | +1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 54.7% | 1.83 | 2.15 Betfair | 46.5% | +8.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 45.3% | 2.21 | 1.82 Betano | 54.9% | -9.6 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Arsenal favoured against Leeds
Our model makes Arsenal 49% to win this Premier League fixture, with the draw at 26% and Leeds at 25%. The goal projection is 1.64 for Arsenal against 1.11 for Leeds — a substantial edge to Arsenal on expected output. A combined 2.75 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 1-0 10%
- 2-1 10%
- 2-0 9%
- 0-0 7%
This season
| Arsenal | Leeds | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Played | 10 |
| 9-0-1 | W-D-L | 3-5-2 |
| 2.70 | Pts / game | 1.40 |
| 1.50 | Goals for / game | 1.00 |
| 0.50 | Goals against / game | 0.80 |
| 40% | Over 2.5 | 20% |
| 20% | BTTS | 50% |
| 70% | Clean sheets | 40% |
| 10% | Failed to score | 30% |
| 5-0-0 | Home record | 2-3-0 |
| 4-0-1 | Away record | 1-2-2 |
| W5 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Arsenal · Leeds
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 14.0 | Shots | 12.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.3 | Shots on target | 3.9 |
| 6.3 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 1.33 | Cards | 2.14 |
| 9.7 | Fouls | 13.4 |
| 60 | Possession % | 51 |
| 1.56 | xG | 1.31 |
| 6 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 12.3 | Shots | 11.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.8 | Shots on target | 4.4 |
| 5.2 | Corners | 3.7 |
| 3.50 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 15.5 | Fouls | 11.4 |
| 40 | Possession % | 49 |
| 0.74 | xG | 1.22 |
| 6 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Arsenal | Metric | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| 1.80 | Goals scored | 1.80 |
| 1.20 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.80 |
| 1.85 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.84 |
| Big chances | ||
| 6.00 (better) | Shots on target | 4.20 |
| 15.20 (better) | Total shots | 13.60 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.20 | Corners | 5.00 (better) |
| 57.6 (better) | Possession % | 46.4 |
| 510 (better) | Passes | 395 |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.80 | Fouls | 9.80 (better) |
| 1.80 | Offsides | 1.80 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.20 | Yellow cards | 1.20 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Arsenal wins
- 3
- Draws
- 0
- Leeds wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 4.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 33%
- Arsenal v Leeds2–12026-10-10
- Leeds v Arsenal0–42026-01-31
- Arsenal v Leeds5–02025-08-23
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | +10 | 27 | Arsenal won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Brighton | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | +19 | 22 | Brighton won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | +8 | 21 | Manchester City won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | +4 | 18 | Liverpool won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | +3 | 16 | Chelsea won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Everton | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 16 | Everton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 15 | Bournemouth won 4 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Brentford | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | +5 | 14 | Brentford won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Leeds | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 14 | Leeds won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 13 | Aston Villa won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Tottenham | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 | Tottenham won 3 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 | Newcastle won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Hull City | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | Hull City won 0 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Ipswich | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 | Ipswich won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Fulham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 10 | Fulham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 9 | Nottingham Forest won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Coventry | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -9 | 9 | Coventry won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Manchester United | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 8 | Manchester United won 0 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Sunderland | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 | Sunderland won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 7 | Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 5 |