Wiliete v Mamelodi Sundowns

0–0

15:00 UTC

Over 1.5: 71%
Over 2.5: 44%
Over 3.5: 23%
Both score: 50%

Model pick: Wiliete 39%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.29 – 1.15

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Draw	28.8%	3.47	—	—	—
Match result	Mamelodi Sundowns	32.2%	3.11	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 1.5	70.9%	1.41	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 1.5	29.1%	3.44	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 2.5	44.2%	2.26	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 2.5	55.8%	1.79	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 3.5	23.1%	4.33	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 3.5	76.9%	1.30	—	—	—
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	50.4%	1.98	—	—	—
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	49.6%	2.02	—	—	—
Match result	Wiliete	39.0%	2.56	—	—	—

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Wiliete v Mamelodi Sundowns: too close to call

Our model makes Wiliete 39% to win this CAF Champions League fixture, with the draw at 29% and Mamelodi Sundowns at 32%. The goal projection is 1.29 for Wiliete against 1.15 for Mamelodi Sundowns — a slight edge to Wiliete on expected output. A combined 2.44 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 44% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 10%; 0-0 9%; 0-1 9%; 2-1 8%

This season

Season records for Wiliete and Mamelodi Sundowns
Wiliete		Mamelodi Sundowns
4	Played	3
2-2-0	W-D-L	1-1-1
2.00	Pts / game	1.33
1.50	Goals for / game	1.33
0.25	Goals against / game	1.33
25%	Over 2.5	33%
25%	BTTS	33%
75%	Clean sheets	67%
25%	Failed to score	33%
1-1-0	Home record	0-1-1
1-1-0	Away record	1-0-0
D2	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Wiliete · Mamelodi Sundowns

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
4.0	Shots	16.0
2.0	Shots on target	10.0
0.0	Corners	8.0
2.00	Cards	1.00
—	Fouls	—
46	Possession %	54
—	xG	—
1 matches	sample	1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.0	Shots	4.0
10.0	Shots on target	2.0
8.0	Corners	0.0
1.00	Cards	2.00
—	Fouls	—
54	Possession %	46
—	xG	—
1 matches	sample	1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Wiliete	Metric	Mamelodi Sundowns
2.60 (better)	Goals scored	2.00
0.20 (better)	Goals conceded	0.60
	Expected goals (xG)	1.63
	Big chances
	Shots on target	6.50
	Total shots	17.00
	Touches in opp. box
	Corners	6.50
	Possession %	66.3
	Passes	603
	Tackles
	Fouls	14.50
	Offsides	1.50
	Throw-ins
	Yellow cards	1.75
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Wiliete wins: 0
Draws: 2
Mamelodi Sundowns wins: 0
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 50%

Mamelodi Sundowns v Wiliete1–12026-10-23
Wiliete v Mamelodi Sundowns0–02026-10-18