Predicted Edge

Mamelodi Sundowns v Wiliete

Mamelodi Sundowns won 1 of the last 31–1Wiliete won 2 of the last 4

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Mamelodi Sundowns Wiliete
16Shots4
10Shots on target2
8Corners0
—Fouls—
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
—Offsides—
—Passes—
54%Possession %46%
—xG—
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
24%
Both score
49%
Model pick
Mamelodi Sundowns 50%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.54 – 0.97

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultMamelodi Sundowns49.9%2.00———
Match resultDraw26.9%3.72———
Match resultWiliete23.2%4.31———
Total goalsOver 1.572.0%1.39———
Total goalsUnder 1.528.0%3.57———
Total goalsOver 2.545.8%2.19———
Total goalsUnder 2.554.2%1.84———
Total goalsOver 3.524.4%4.11———
Total goalsUnder 3.575.6%1.32———
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes49.3%2.03———
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No50.7%1.97———

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Mamelodi Sundowns favoured against Wiliete

Our model makes Mamelodi Sundowns 50% to win this CAF Champions League fixture, with the draw at 27% and Wiliete at 23%. The goal projection is 1.54 for Mamelodi Sundowns against 0.97 for Wiliete — a substantial edge to Mamelodi Sundowns on expected output. A combined 2.51 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 46% and both teams to score at 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 13%
1-0 12%
2-0 10%
2-1 9%
0-0 9%

This season

Season records for Mamelodi Sundowns and Wiliete
Mamelodi Sundowns Wiliete
3Played4
1-1-1W-D-L2-2-0
1.33Pts / game2.00
1.33Goals for / game1.50
1.33Goals against / game0.25
33%Over 2.525%
33%BTTS25%
67%Clean sheets75%
33%Failed to score25%
0-1-1Home record1-1-0
1-0-0Away record1-1-0
D1StreakD2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Mamelodi Sundowns · Wiliete

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.0Shots4.0
10.0Shots on target2.0
8.0Corners0.0
1.00Cards2.00
—Fouls—
54Possession %46
—xG—
1 matchessample1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
4.0Shots16.0
2.0Shots on target10.0
0.0Corners8.0
2.00Cards1.00
—Fouls—
46Possession %54
—xG—
1 matchessample1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Mamelodi SundownsMetricWiliete
2.40Goals scored2.60 (better)
0.60Goals conceded0.20 (better)
1.97Expected goals (xG)
Big chances
7.75Shots on target
19.50Total shots
Touches in opp. box
8.00Corners
70.3Possession %
657Passes
Tackles
15.75Fouls
1.75Offsides
Throw-ins
1.75Yellow cards
0.00Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Mamelodi Sundowns wins
0
Draws
2
Wiliete wins
0
Goals / game
1.00
Over 2.5
0%
Both score
50%