Wigan v Mansfield Town

14:00 UTCWigan24thMansfield Town17th

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 57%
Over 3.5: 35%
Both score: 60%

Model pick: Mansfield Town 42%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.38 – 1.60

Advised bets

Advised betfree for everyone

★★★★★

Selection: Mansfield Town
Advised price: 2.92 (Betano)
Stake: 2.00 units
Fair price: 2.38

Model probability 42% against an offered price implying less, for a modelled edge of 22.4%. Projection: 1.38–1.60. The edge is an estimate and carries model error; stake accordingly.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Wigan	32.5%	3.08	2.32 1xBet	43.1%	-10.6
Match result	Draw	25.6%	3.91	3.64 Pinnacle	27.5%	-1.9
Match result	Mansfield Town	41.9%	2.38	2.92 Betano	34.2%	+7.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	80.4%	1.24	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 1.5	19.6%	5.11	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 2.5	57.2%	1.75	1.73 Marathonbet	57.8%	-0.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	42.8%	2.34	2.15 Pinnacle	46.5%	-3.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	34.8%	2.87	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 3.5	65.2%	1.53	—	—	—
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	60.4%	1.66	1.58 Marathonbet	63.3%	-2.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	39.6%	2.53	2.25 William Hill	44.4%	-4.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a bet is only advised where the gap clears our threshold after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Mansfield Town favoured against Wigan

Our model makes Wigan 32% to win this League One fixture, with the draw at 26% and Mansfield Town at 42%. The goal projection is 1.38 for Wigan against 1.60 for Mansfield Town — a slight edge to Mansfield Town on expected output. A combined 2.98 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 8%; 0-1 7%; 0-2 6%

This season

Season records for Wigan and Mansfield Town
Wigan		Mansfield Town
7	Played	7
1-1-5	W-D-L	2-2-3
0.57	Pts / game	1.14
0.71	Goals for / game	1.43
1.71	Goals against / game	1.86
43%	Over 2.5	71%
29%	BTTS	57%
14%	Clean sheets	14%
71%	Failed to score	43%
1-0-3	Home record	2-1-0
0-1-2	Away record	0-1-3
L1	Streak	D2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Wigan · Mansfield Town

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

No full-match statistics on record yet this season.

Conceded

No full-match statistics on record yet this season.

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Wigan	Metric	Mansfield Town
1.20 (better)	Goals scored	0.50
1.60 (better)	Goals conceded	2.00
1.25 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.08
	Big chances
3.40 (better)	Shots on target	3.25
13.40 (better)	Total shots	10.00
	Touches in opp. box
5.00 (better)	Corners	3.00
49.0 (better)	Possession %	47.5
436 (better)	Passes	363
	Tackles
11.00 (better)	Fouls	14.50
3.00 (better)	Offsides	3.33
	Throw-ins
3.00	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to headFull record →

Wigan wins: 1
Draws: 1
Mansfield Town wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.50
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 100%

Wigan v Mansfield Town2–12026-04-11
Mansfield Town v Wigan1–12025-10-25

League One table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Bradford	7	5	0	2	+3	15	Bradford won 3 of the last 5
2	Sheffield Wednesday	7	4	2	1	+7	14	Sheffield Wednesday won 3 of the last 5
3	Stockport County	8	4	1	3	+7	13	Stockport County won 2 of the last 5
4	Plymouth	8	4	1	3	+3	13	Plymouth won 3 of the last 5
5	Cambridge United	8	3	4	1	+2	13	Cambridge United won 2 of the last 5
6	Huddersfield	7	3	3	1	+5	12	Huddersfield won 2 of the last 5
7	Burton Albion	8	3	3	2	+1	12	Burton Albion won 2 of the last 5
8	AFC Wimbledon	8	3	3	2	-2	12	AFC Wimbledon won 2 of the last 5
9	Reading	7	3	2	2	+7	11	Reading won 3 of the last 5
10	Oxford United	6	3	2	1	+6	11	Oxford United won 3 of the last 5
11	Leyton Orient	7	3	1	3	+4	10	Leyton Orient won 2 of the last 5
12	Wycombe	8	2	4	2	-3	10	Wycombe won 2 of the last 5
13	Stevenage	7	2	3	2	+3	9	Stevenage won 2 of the last 5
14	Leicester	7	2	3	2	-2	9	Leicester won 2 of the last 5
15	Blackpool	7	2	2	3	0	8	Blackpool won 1 of the last 5
16	Luton	7	2	2	3	-2	8	Luton won 1 of the last 5
17	Mansfield Town	7	2	2	3	-3	8	Mansfield Town won 1 of the last 5
18	Barnsley	7	2	2	3	-5	8	Barnsley won 2 of the last 5
19	Bromley	7	2	2	3	-10	8	Bromley won 1 of the last 5
20	Notts County	7	1	4	2	-2	7	Notts County won 1 of the last 5
21	Doncaster	7	1	3	3	-1	6	Doncaster won 1 of the last 5
22	Milton Keynes Dons	7	0	6	1	-2	6	Milton Keynes Dons won 0 of the last 5
23	Peterborough	8	1	2	5	-9	5	Peterborough won 0 of the last 5
24	Wigan	7	1	1	5	-7	4	Wigan won 1 of the last 5