Wigan v Mansfield Town

21st0–011th

19:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Wigan		Mansfield Town
16	Shots	7
2	Shots on target	3
5	Corners	2
6	Fouls	20
0	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
411	Passes	490
46%	Possession %	54%
1.59	xG	1.22

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 57%
Over 3.5: 35%
Both score: 60%

Model pick: Mansfield Town 42%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.38 – 1.60

Advised bets

Lost

Free pick

Mansfield Town

2.92Betano · fair 2.38 · qualifies at 2.58+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Mansfield Town to win at 2.92 with Betano.

Our model puts the chance at 42%, which is a fair price of 2.39. The offered 2.92 implies only 34%, so the price is 22.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Wigan 1.38, Mansfield Town 1.60.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Wigan	32.5%	3.08	3.30 Betfair	30.3%	+2.2
Match result	Draw	25.6%	3.91	3.60 Betfair	27.8%	-2.2
Match result	Mansfield Town	41.9%	2.38	2.22 Betano	45.0%	-3.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	80.4%	1.24	1.24 Betano	80.6%	-0.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	19.6%	5.11	4.50 Bet365	22.2%	-2.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	57.2%	1.75	1.78 Betano	56.2%	+1.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	42.8%	2.34	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	-2.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	34.8%	2.87	2.70 Betfair	37.0%	-2.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	65.2%	1.53	1.47 Betano	68.0%	-2.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	60.4%	1.66	1.57 William Hill	63.7%	-3.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	39.6%	2.53	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	-2.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Mansfield Town favoured against Wigan

Our model makes Wigan 32% to win this League One fixture, with the draw at 26% and Mansfield Town at 42%. The goal projection is 1.38 for Wigan against 1.60 for Mansfield Town — a slight edge to Mansfield Town on expected output. A combined 2.98 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 8%; 0-1 7%; 0-2 6%

This season

Season records for Wigan and Mansfield Town
Wigan		Mansfield Town
14	Played	13
3-2-9	W-D-L	5-4-4
0.79	Pts / game	1.46
0.79	Goals for / game	1.54
1.57	Goals against / game	1.38
50%	Over 2.5	62%
36%	BTTS	54%
21%	Clean sheets	23%
57%	Failed to score	38%
3-1-3	Home record	3-2-1
0-1-6	Away record	2-2-3
D1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Wigan · Mansfield Town

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.0	Shots	16.0
3.0	Shots on target	4.7
4.1	Corners	7.0
2.86	Cards	2.00
11.3	Fouls	12.8
50	Possession %	53
1.09	xG	2.10
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.9	Shots	12.3
5.1	Shots on target	3.2
5.1	Corners	4.5
3.14	Cards	2.17
15.1	Fouls	10.3
50	Possession %	47
2.17	xG	1.01
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Wigan	Metric	Mansfield Town
1.20 (better)	Goals scored	0.50
1.60 (better)	Goals conceded	2.00
1.25 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.08
	Big chances
3.40 (better)	Shots on target	3.25
13.40 (better)	Total shots	10.00
	Touches in opp. box
5.00 (better)	Corners	3.00
49.0 (better)	Possession %	47.5
436 (better)	Passes	363
	Tackles
11.00 (better)	Fouls	14.50
3.00 (better)	Offsides	3.33
	Throw-ins
3.00	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Wigan wins: 1
Draws: 2
Mansfield Town wins: 0
Goals / game: 1.67
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 67%

Wigan v Mansfield Town0–02026-11-03
Wigan v Mansfield Town2–12026-04-11
Mansfield Town v Wigan1–12025-10-25

League One table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Huddersfield	14	8	5	1	+16	29	Huddersfield won 4 of the last 5
2	Stockport County	14	8	2	4	+12	26	Stockport County won 3 of the last 5
3	Oxford United	13	7	5	1	+11	26	Oxford United won 3 of the last 5
4	Luton	14	7	3	4	+6	24	Luton won 4 of the last 5
5	Plymouth	14	7	2	5	+2	23	Plymouth won 2 of the last 5
6	Reading	14	6	4	4	+10	22	Reading won 2 of the last 5
7	Bradford	13	6	4	3	+2	22	Bradford won 1 of the last 5
8	Cambridge United	14	5	6	3	0	21	Cambridge United won 1 of the last 5
9	Sheffield Wednesday	13	5	5	3	+8	20	Sheffield Wednesday won 1 of the last 5
10	Leicester	13	5	4	4	+3	19	Leicester won 3 of the last 5
11	Mansfield Town	13	5	4	4	+2	19	Mansfield Town won 2 of the last 5
12	Milton Keynes Dons	13	4	6	3	+2	18	Milton Keynes Dons won 4 of the last 5
13	Wycombe	13	4	6	3	-2	18	Wycombe won 2 of the last 5
14	Leyton Orient	13	5	2	6	+5	17	Leyton Orient won 2 of the last 5
15	Burton Albion	14	4	5	5	-3	17	Burton Albion won 1 of the last 5
16	Stevenage	12	4	4	4	+4	16	Stevenage won 2 of the last 5
17	Notts County	12	3	5	4	-1	14	Notts County won 2 of the last 5
18	AFC Wimbledon	13	3	4	6	-12	13	AFC Wimbledon won 0 of the last 5
19	Blackpool	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Blackpool won 1 of the last 5
20	Doncaster	13	3	3	7	-8	12	Doncaster won 1 of the last 5
21	Wigan	14	3	2	9	-11	11	Wigan won 1 of the last 5
22	Peterborough	13	2	4	7	-12	10	Peterborough won 1 of the last 5
23	Barnsley	12	2	3	7	-10	9	Barnsley won 0 of the last 5
24	Bromley	13	2	3	8	-20	9	Bromley won 0 of the last 5