VPS v Inter Turku

6th0–11st

11:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
VPS		Inter Turku
5	Shots	11
0	Shots on target	3
1	Corners	7
14	Fouls	10
3	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	1
4	Offsides	2
384	Passes	491
45%	Possession %	55%
0.33	xG	0.98

Over 1.5: 62%
Over 2.5: 34%
Over 3.5: 16%
Both score: 41%

Model pick: Inter Turku 43%
Likely score: 0-1 14%
Expected goals: 0.87 – 1.20

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	VPS	26.1%	3.83	4.70 Dafabet	21.3%	+4.8
Match result	Draw	30.9%	3.23	3.80 Dafabet	26.3%	+4.6
Match result	Inter Turku	43.0%	2.33	1.75 Betano	57.1%	-14.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	62.0%	1.61	1.30 Betano	76.9%	-14.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	38.0%	2.63	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	+9.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	34.4%	2.91	1.90 Bet365	52.6%	-18.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	65.6%	1.52	1.90 Bet365	52.6%	+13.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	15.7%	6.38	3.30 BetVictor	30.3%	-14.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	84.3%	1.19	1.34 Betano	74.6%	+9.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	41.4%	2.42	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-11.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	58.6%	1.71	2.00 Betfair	50.0%	+8.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Inter Turku favoured against VPS

Our model makes VPS 26% to win this Veikkausliiga fixture, with the draw at 31% and Inter Turku at 43%. The goal projection is 0.87 for VPS against 1.20 for Inter Turku — a clear edge to Inter Turku on expected output. A combined 2.07 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 34% and both teams to score at 41%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-1 14%; 1-1 14%; 0-0 13%; 1-0 10%; 0-2 9%

This season

Season records for VPS and Inter Turku
VPS		Inter Turku
32	Played	32
11-7-14	W-D-L	17-10-5
1.25	Pts / game	1.91
1.00	Goals for / game	1.34
1.34	Goals against / game	0.84
38%	Over 2.5	34%
41%	BTTS	44%
28%	Clean sheets	53%
41%	Failed to score	22%
7-3-6	Home record	8-5-3
4-4-8	Away record	9-5-2
L2	Streak	W2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. VPS · Inter Turku

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
9.9	Shots	13.4
2.6	Shots on target	4.3
4.6	Corners	5.1
1.86	Cards	1.57
13.9	Fouls	10.7
53	Possession %	54
1.01	xG	1.54
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.4	Shots	11.9
5.0	Shots on target	4.1
4.0	Corners	4.7
1.14	Cards	2.14
10.4	Fouls	12.3
47	Possession %	46
1.72	xG	1.17
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
VPS	Metric	Inter Turku
0.40	Goals scored	0.80 (better)
1.80	Goals conceded	0.40 (better)
1.73	Expected goals (xG)	2.48 (better)
	Big chances
2.00	Shots on target	4.80 (better)
10.60	Total shots	13.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.00 (better)	Corners	4.20
51.0	Possession %	55.2 (better)
376	Passes	525 (better)
	Tackles
15.60	Fouls	11.60 (better)
2.00 (better)	Offsides	3.00
	Throw-ins
3.00	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

VPS wins: 0
Draws: 1
Inter Turku wins: 4
Goals / game: 1.20
Over 2.5: 20%
Both score: 20%

VPS v Inter Turku0–12026-10-24
Inter Turku v VPS1–02026-09-14
VPS v Inter Turku0–12026-08-02
Inter Turku v VPS0–02026-04-04
Inter Turku v VPS2–12025-08-31

Veikkausliiga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Inter Turku	32	17	10	5	+16	61	Inter Turku won 3 of the last 5
2	HJK Helsinki	32	17	8	7	+27	59	HJK Helsinki won 3 of the last 5
3	KuPS	32	14	11	7	+13	53	KuPS won 1 of the last 5
4	AC Oulu	32	14	6	12	+1	48	AC Oulu won 3 of the last 5
5	Gnistan	32	12	10	10	+5	46	Gnistan won 1 of the last 5
6	VPS	32	11	7	14	-11	40	VPS won 0 of the last 5
7	Lahti	27	11	6	10	+9	39	Lahti won 2 of the last 5
8	Ilves	27	11	5	11	+6	38	Ilves won 4 of the last 5
9	Turku PS	27	8	8	11	-4	32	Turku PS won 0 of the last 5
10	SJK	27	6	9	12	-8	27	SJK won 2 of the last 5
11	FF Jaro	29	5	10	14	-26	25	FF Jaro won 2 of the last 5
12	Mariehamn	27	4	7	16	-27	19	Mariehamn won 1 of the last 5
13	PK-35	2	0	1	1	-1	1	PK-35 won 0 of the last 2