Vietnam won 0 of the last 3LLL2–0Chinese Taipei won 0 of the last 5LLLLL
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Vietnam
Chinese Taipei
—
Shots
—
5
Shots on target
4
3
Corners
3
1
Fouls
0
0
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
0
Offsides
0
—
Passes
—
67%
Possession %
33%
—
xG
—
69%
17%
14%
1 · VietnamXChinese Taipei · 2
Over 1.5
89%
Over 2.5
73%
Over 3.5
52%
Both score
63%
Model pick
Vietnam 69%
Likely score
2-1 9%
Expected goals
2.65 – 1.13
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Total goals
Over 2.5
72.7%
1.38
1.33 Betano
75.2%
-2.5
Total goals
Under 2.5
27.3%
3.66
3.70 BetVictor
27.0%
+0.3
Total goals
Over 3.5
52.1%
1.92
1.82 Betano
54.9%
-2.9
Total goals
Under 3.5
47.9%
2.09
2.15 Betano
46.5%
+1.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
63.1%
1.58
2.10 William Hill
47.6%
+15.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
36.9%
2.71
1.93 BetVictor
51.8%
-14.9
Match result
Vietnam
69.5%
1.44
1.17 Bet365
85.5%
-16.0
Match result
Draw
17.0%
5.89
10.00 Dafabet
10.0%
+7.0
Match result
Chinese Taipei
13.6%
7.38
19.00 Bet365
5.3%
+8.3
Total goals
Over 1.5
89.4%
1.12
1.08 Betano
92.6%
-3.2
Total goals
Under 1.5
10.6%
9.41
9.00 Bet365
11.1%
-0.5
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Vietnam favoured against Chinese Taipei
Our model makes Vietnam 69% to win this Friendlies fixture, with the draw at 17% and Chinese Taipei at 14%. The goal projection is 2.65 for Vietnam against 1.13 for Chinese Taipei — a commanding edge to Vietnam on expected output. A combined 3.77 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 73% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Vietnam is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 31% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Vietnam
Metric
Chinese Taipei
1.40 (better)
Goals scored
0.60
1.40 (better)
Goals conceded
4.00
—
Expected goals (xG)
—
—
Big chances *
—
3.75
Shots on target
—
14.50
Total shots
—
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.50
Corners
—
53.3
Possession %
—
497
Passes
—
—
Tackles
—
7.25
Fouls
—
1.50
Offsides
—
—
Throw-ins *
—
0.75
Yellow cards
—
0.00
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Vietnam v 
Chinese Taipei