Vietnam U23 won 1 of the last 4WLLD3–0Thailand U23 won 1 of the last 5LLLLW
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Vietnam U23
Thailand U23
15
Shots
4
11
Shots on target
2
7
Corners
2
—
Fouls
—
0
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
—
Offsides
—
—
Passes
—
58%
Possession %
42%
—
xG
—
42%
24%
34%
1 · Vietnam U23XThailand U23 · 2
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
40%
Both score
64%
Model pick
Vietnam U23 42%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.69 – 1.51
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Vietnam U23
41.5%
2.41
2.00 William Hill
50.0%
-8.5
Match result
Draw
24.4%
4.10
3.60 Dafabet
27.8%
-3.4
Match result
Thailand U23
34.1%
2.93
5.40 Dafabet
18.5%
+15.6
Total goals
Over 1.5
83.4%
1.20
1.30 Betano
76.9%
+6.4
Total goals
Under 1.5
16.6%
6.01
3.60 Betfair
27.8%
-11.1
Total goals
Over 2.5
62.0%
1.61
2.00 Betano
50.0%
+12.0
Total goals
Under 2.5
38.0%
2.63
1.85 Bet365
54.1%
-16.0
Total goals
Over 3.5
39.7%
2.52
3.60 Betfair
27.8%
+11.9
Total goals
Under 3.5
60.3%
1.66
1.30 Bet365
76.9%
-16.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
64.0%
1.56
1.83 Bet365
54.6%
+9.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
36.0%
2.78
2.00 Betfair
50.0%
-14.0
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Vietnam U23 favoured against Thailand U23
Our model makes Vietnam U23 42% to win this Friendlies fixture, with the draw at 24% and Thailand U23 at 34%. The goal projection is 1.69 for Vietnam U23 against 1.51 for Thailand U23 — a slight edge to Vietnam U23 on expected output. A combined 3.20 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Vietnam U23
Metric
Thailand U23
0.60
Goals scored
2.00 (better)
1.60 (better)
Goals conceded
2.80
—
Expected goals (xG)
—
—
Big chances *
—
—
Shots on target
2.00
—
Total shots
7.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
—
Corners
5.00
—
Possession %
42.0
—
Passes
—
—
Tackles
—
—
Fouls
—
—
Offsides
—
—
Throw-ins *
—
—
Yellow cards
4.00
—
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Vietnam U23 v 
Thailand U23