VfL Wolfsburg won 2 of the last 5LWDWD5th2–0VfL Osnabrück won 1 of the last 5LLWLD14th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Osnabrück
31
Shots
13
7
Shots on target
4
9
Corners
3
7
Fouls
10
1
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
0
Offsides
4
647
Passes
354
64%
Possession %
36%
2.05
xG
1.18
59%
20%
21%
1 · VfL WolfsburgXVfL Osnabrück · 2
Over 1.5
88%
Over 2.5
71%
Over 3.5
50%
Both score
67%
Model pick
VfL Wolfsburg 59%
Likely score
2-1 9%
Expected goals
2.31 – 1.34
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
VfL Wolfsburg
58.9%
1.70
1.60 Betano
62.5%
-3.6
Match result
Draw
20.3%
4.94
4.70 Betano
21.3%
-1.0
Match result
VfL Osnabrück
20.9%
4.79
5.50 Betano
18.2%
+2.7
Total goals
Over 1.5
88.3%
1.13
1.13 Betano
88.5%
-0.2
Total goals
Under 1.5
11.7%
8.56
7.00 Bet365
14.3%
-2.6
Total goals
Over 2.5
70.6%
1.42
1.40 Bet365
71.4%
-0.8
Total goals
Under 2.5
29.4%
3.40
3.15 Betano
31.7%
-2.4
Total goals
Over 3.5
49.5%
2.02
2.00 Betfair
50.0%
-0.5
Total goals
Under 3.5
50.5%
1.98
1.87 Betano
53.5%
-3.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
66.8%
1.50
1.45 Betano
69.0%
-2.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
33.2%
3.02
2.70 BetVictor
37.0%
-3.9
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
VfL Wolfsburg favoured against VfL Osnabrück
Our model makes VfL Wolfsburg 59% to win this 2. Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 20% and VfL Osnabrück at 21%. The goal projection is 2.31 for VfL Wolfsburg against 1.34 for VfL Osnabrück — a commanding edge to VfL Wolfsburg on expected output. A combined 3.65 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 71% and both teams to score at 67%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
2-1 9%
1-1 8%
3-1 7%
2-0 7%
2-2 6%
This season
Season records for VfL Wolfsburg and VfL Osnabrück
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
VfL Wolfsburg
Metric
VfL Osnabrück
3.40 (better)
Goals scored
1.20
1.40 (better)
Goals conceded
1.60
1.82 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.72
—
Big chances *
—
7.00 (better)
Shots on target
3.00
16.75 (better)
Total shots
9.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.50 (better)
Corners
2.00
56.0 (better)
Possession %
46.5
429
Passes
492 (better)
—
Tackles
—
15.25
Fouls
9.00 (better)
0.75
Offsides
0.50 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.50 (better)
Yellow cards
3.00
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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VfL Wolfsburg v 
VfL Osnabrück