VfL Wolfsburg won 2 of the last 5LWDWD5th3–11. FC Heidenheim won 0 of the last 5DLDLD7th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
VfL Wolfsburg
1. FC Heidenheim
19
Shots
22
10
Shots on target
9
8
Corners
8
15
Fouls
9
4
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
6
463
Passes
319
58%
Possession %
42%
1.68
xG
2.04
50%
23%
28%
1 · VfL WolfsburgX1. FC Heidenheim · 2
Over 1.5
86%
Over 2.5
67%
Over 3.5
45%
Both score
67%
Model pick
VfL Wolfsburg 50%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
1.99 – 1.45
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
VfL Wolfsburg
49.7%
2.01
1.72 Betano
58.1%
-8.4
Match result
Draw
22.6%
4.42
4.33 BetVictor
23.1%
-0.5
Match result
1. FC Heidenheim
27.7%
3.61
4.55 Betano
22.0%
+5.7
Total goals
Over 1.5
86.3%
1.16
1.13 Betano
88.5%
-2.2
Total goals
Under 1.5
13.7%
7.30
8.00 Bet365
12.5%
+1.2
Total goals
Over 2.5
66.9%
1.50
1.40 Betano
71.4%
-4.5
Total goals
Under 2.5
33.1%
3.02
3.40 Bet365
29.4%
+3.7
Total goals
Over 3.5
45.2%
2.21
2.00 Betfair
50.0%
-4.8
Total goals
Under 3.5
54.8%
1.82
1.91 Bet365
52.4%
+2.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
66.6%
1.50
1.42 Betano
70.4%
-3.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
33.4%
3.00
3.00 BetVictor
33.3%
+0.0
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
VfL Wolfsburg favoured against 1. FC Heidenheim
Our model makes VfL Wolfsburg 50% to win this 2. Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 23% and 1. FC Heidenheim at 28%. The goal projection is 1.99 for VfL Wolfsburg against 1.45 for 1. FC Heidenheim — a substantial edge to VfL Wolfsburg on expected output. A combined 3.45 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 67% and both teams to score at 67%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 10%
2-1 9%
1-2 7%
2-2 7%
2-0 6%
This season
Season records for VfL Wolfsburg and 1. FC Heidenheim
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
VfL Wolfsburg
Metric
1. FC Heidenheim
3.60 (better)
Goals scored
1.20
1.80
Goals conceded
1.20 (better)
2.86 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.90
—
Big chances *
—
6.50 (better)
Shots on target
5.00
19.00 (better)
Total shots
15.33
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.00
Corners
6.33 (better)
58.3 (better)
Possession %
54.3
498 (better)
Passes
412
—
Tackles
—
13.50
Fouls
10.00 (better)
0.25 (better)
Offsides
2.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.25
Yellow cards
1.67 (better)
0.50
Red cards
0.00 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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VfL Wolfsburg v 
1. FC Heidenheim