VfL Osnabrück won 1 of the last 5LLWLD14th3–0SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 2 of the last 5LWLWL10th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
VfL Osnabrück
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
14
Shots
13
9
Shots on target
1
6
Corners
7
8
Fouls
6
1
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
—
Offsides
—
426
Passes
608
42%
Possession %
58%
2.55
xG
0.65
44%
24%
31%
1 · VfL OsnabrückXSpVgg Greuther Fürth · 2
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
40%
Both score
64%
Model pick
VfL Osnabrück 44%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.46
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
VfL Osnabrück
44.4%
2.25
2.20 Betfair
45.5%
-1.1
Match result
Draw
24.1%
4.14
3.75 Bet365
26.7%
-2.5
Match result
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
31.5%
3.18
3.30 Dafabet
30.3%
+1.2
Total goals
Over 1.5
83.6%
1.20
1.21 Betano
82.6%
+0.9
Total goals
Under 1.5
16.4%
6.08
5.00 Bet365
20.0%
-3.6
Total goals
Over 2.5
62.3%
1.60
1.65 Betano
60.6%
+1.7
Total goals
Under 2.5
37.7%
2.65
2.38 Betfair
42.0%
-4.3
Total goals
Over 3.5
40.0%
2.50
2.55 Betano
39.2%
+0.8
Total goals
Under 3.5
60.0%
1.67
1.55 Betano
64.5%
-4.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
64.0%
1.56
1.53 Bet365
65.4%
-1.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
36.0%
2.77
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
-3.2
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
VfL Osnabrück favoured against SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Our model makes VfL Osnabrück 44% to win this 2. Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 24% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 31%. The goal projection is 1.76 for VfL Osnabrück against 1.46 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth — a clear edge to VfL Osnabrück on expected output. A combined 3.21 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 11%
2-1 9%
1-2 7%
2-2 7%
1-0 7%
This season
Season records for VfL Osnabrück and SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
VfL Osnabrück
Metric
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.20 (better)
Goals scored
1.00
1.40 (better)
Goals conceded
1.80
1.64 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.03
—
Big chances *
—
4.00
Shots on target
4.50 (better)
12.50
Total shots
14.00 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
2.50
Corners
7.00 (better)
43.0
Possession %
49.8 (better)
435 (better)
Passes
431
—
Tackles
—
11.00
Fouls
8.00 (better)
1.50 (better)
Offsides
2.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
4.00
Yellow cards
1.00 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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VfL Osnabrück v 
SpVgg Greuther Fürth