VfL Osnabrück won 1 of the last 5LLWLD14th0–11. FC Kaiserslautern won 3 of the last 5WLWWD3rd
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
VfL Osnabrück
1. FC Kaiserslautern
16
Shots
13
7
Shots on target
7
5
Corners
3
11
Fouls
9
0
Yellow cards
4
0
Red cards
0
0
Offsides
2
450
Passes
575
44%
Possession %
56%
1.27
xG
1.45
38%
28%
34%
1 · VfL OsnabrückX1. FC Kaiserslautern · 2
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
26%
Both score
53%
Model pick
VfL Osnabrück 38%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.24
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
VfL Osnabrück
38.2%
2.62
2.60 Betfair
38.5%
-0.3
Match result
Draw
27.8%
3.59
3.75 Betano
26.7%
+1.2
Match result
1. FC Kaiserslautern
33.9%
2.95
2.85 Dafabet
35.1%
-1.1
Total goals
Over 1.5
73.2%
1.37
1.24 Betano
80.6%
-7.5
Total goals
Under 1.5
26.8%
3.73
4.50 Betfair
22.2%
+4.6
Total goals
Over 2.5
47.2%
2.12
1.70 Bet365
58.8%
-11.6
Total goals
Under 2.5
52.8%
1.89
2.22 Betano
45.0%
+7.7
Total goals
Over 3.5
25.6%
3.91
2.70 Betfair
37.0%
-11.5
Total goals
Under 3.5
74.4%
1.34
1.47 Betano
68.0%
+6.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
52.7%
1.90
1.57 Bet365
63.7%
-10.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
47.3%
2.12
2.45 Betfair
40.8%
+6.4
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
VfL Osnabrück v 1. FC Kaiserslautern: too close to call
Our model makes VfL Osnabrück 38% to win this 2. Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 28% and 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 34%. The goal projection is 1.33 for VfL Osnabrück against 1.24 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern — almost nothing to VfL Osnabrück on expected output. A combined 2.56 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 13%
1-0 10%
0-1 9%
2-1 8%
0-0 8%
This season
Season records for VfL Osnabrück and 1. FC Kaiserslautern
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
VfL Osnabrück
Metric
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.20
Goals scored
1.20
1.60
Goals conceded
0.20 (better)
1.97 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.25
—
Big chances *
—
5.00 (better)
Shots on target
4.00
11.00
Total shots
12.50 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.33
Corners
5.00 (better)
45.0 (better)
Possession %
44.3
471 (better)
Passes
349
—
Tackles
—
8.67 (better)
Fouls
10.25
0.50 (better)
Offsides
1.50
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.33 (better)
Yellow cards
3.33
—
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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VfL Osnabrück v 
1. FC Kaiserslautern