VfL Bochum v VfL Wolfsburg

8th1–15th

16:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
VfL Bochum		VfL Wolfsburg
19	Shots	14
5	Shots on target	5
5	Corners	7
19	Fouls	9
0	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
6	Offsides	1
336	Passes	576
37%	Possession %	63%
1.59	xG	0.78

Over 1.5: 78%
Over 2.5: 54%
Over 3.5: 32%
Both score: 58%

Model pick: VfL Bochum 38%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.45 – 1.39

Advised bets

Half wonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

VfL Wolfsburg +0.25

1.93BetVictor · fair 1.79 · qualifies at 1.85+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back VfL Wolfsburg +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.93 with BetVictor — VfL Wolfsburg starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 56% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 56%; we judge it at 56%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.79. The offered 1.93 implies only 52%, so the price is 7.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: VfL Bochum 1.45, VfL Wolfsburg 1.39.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	VfL Bochum	38.2%	2.62	3.30 Betano	30.3%	+7.9
Match result	Draw	26.2%	3.81	4.00 Betano	25.0%	+1.2
Match result	VfL Wolfsburg	35.6%	2.81	2.15 Betano	46.5%	-10.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	78.2%	1.28	1.14 Betano	87.7%	-9.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	21.8%	4.58	6.50 Bet365	15.4%	+6.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	54.0%	1.85	1.48 BetVictor	67.6%	-13.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	46.0%	2.17	2.88 Bet365	34.7%	+11.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	31.7%	3.15	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	-13.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	68.3%	1.46	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	+12.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	58.1%	1.72	1.44 Betfair	69.4%	-11.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	41.9%	2.38	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	+9.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

VfL Bochum v VfL Wolfsburg: too close to call

Our model makes VfL Bochum 38% to win this 2. Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 26% and VfL Wolfsburg at 36%. The goal projection is 1.45 for VfL Bochum against 1.39 for VfL Wolfsburg — almost nothing to VfL Bochum on expected output. A combined 2.84 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 8%; 1-0 8%; 0-1 8%

This season

Season records for VfL Bochum and VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Bochum		VfL Wolfsburg
11	Played	11
4-2-5	W-D-L	5-4-2
1.27	Pts / game	1.73
1.00	Goals for / game	2.36
1.18	Goals against / game	1.45
36%	Over 2.5	55%
55%	BTTS	64%
9%	Clean sheets	27%
36%	Failed to score	18%
1-2-3	Home record	3-2-0
3-0-2	Away record	2-2-2
W2	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. VfL Bochum · VfL Wolfsburg

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.3	Shots	19.0
5.7	Shots on target	7.0
5.8	Corners	6.6
2.00	Cards	2.60
13.2	Fouls	13.6
52	Possession %	56
1.42	xG	1.83
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.5	Shots	18.2
4.3	Shots on target	6.4
4.2	Corners	6.4
1.83	Cards	1.60
8.5	Fouls	12.2
48	Possession %	44
1.55	xG	1.72
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
VfL Bochum	Metric	VfL Wolfsburg
1.60	Goals scored	3.40 (better)
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	2.20
1.26	Expected goals (xG)	2.45 (better)
	Big chances
5.75	Shots on target	6.00 (better)
17.25	Total shots	18.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
6.25 (better)	Corners	5.50
55.3	Possession %	56.3 (better)
501 (better)	Passes	484
	Tackles
10.25 (better)	Fouls	16.00
2.25	Offsides	0.50 (better)
	Throw-ins
3.25	Yellow cards	2.25 (better)
0.33 (better)	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

VfL Bochum wins: 0
Draws: 1
VfL Wolfsburg wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 100%

VfL Bochum v VfL Wolfsburg1–12026-10-23

2. Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Hertha BSC	11	10	1	0	+16	31	Hertha BSC won 4 of the last 5
2	1. FC Nürnberg	11	7	3	1	+13	24	1. FC Nürnberg won 2 of the last 5
3	1. FC Kaiserslautern	11	6	3	2	+3	21	1. FC Kaiserslautern won 3 of the last 5
4	1. FC Magdeburg	11	6	2	3	+11	20	1. FC Magdeburg won 3 of the last 5
5	VfL Wolfsburg	11	5	4	2	+10	19	VfL Wolfsburg won 2 of the last 5
6	Arminia Bielefeld	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Arminia Bielefeld won 4 of the last 5
7	1. FC Heidenheim	11	4	4	3	-1	16	1. FC Heidenheim won 0 of the last 5
8	VfL Bochum	11	4	2	5	-2	14	VfL Bochum won 2 of the last 5
9	FC St. Pauli	11	2	6	3	-3	12	FC St. Pauli won 1 of the last 5
10	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	11	3	3	5	-6	12	SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 2 of the last 5
11	Hannover 96	11	3	3	5	-6	12	Hannover 96 won 1 of the last 5
12	Energie Cottbus	11	2	5	4	-2	11	Energie Cottbus won 0 of the last 5
13	Eintracht Braunschweig	11	3	2	6	-2	11	Eintracht Braunschweig won 2 of the last 5
14	VfL Osnabrück	11	3	2	6	-4	11	VfL Osnabrück won 1 of the last 5
15	Dynamo Dresden	11	3	2	6	-5	11	Dynamo Dresden won 2 of the last 5
16	Karlsruher SC	11	3	2	6	-9	11	Karlsruher SC won 2 of the last 5
17	SV Darmstadt 98	11	2	3	6	-12	9	SV Darmstadt 98 won 1 of the last 5
18	Holstein Kiel	11	1	5	5	-3	8	Holstein Kiel won 1 of the last 5