Vasco DA Gama won 2 of the last 5WLWLD13th1–3Boca Juniors won 4 of the last 5WWWWD3rd
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Vasco DA Gama
Boca Juniors
12
Shots
7
2
Shots on target
3
5
Corners
5
8
Fouls
14
1
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
0
Offsides
2
560
Passes
340
59%
Possession %
41%
0.63
xG
0.57
32%
28%
39%
1 · Vasco DA GamaXBoca Juniors · 2
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
24%
Both score
52%
Model pick
Boca Juniors 39%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.33
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Vasco DA Gama
32.4%
3.09
2.90 Betano
34.5%
-2.1
Match result
Draw
28.1%
3.56
3.10 Bet365
32.3%
-4.1
Match result
Boca Juniors
39.5%
2.53
3.20 William Hill
31.3%
+8.2
Total goals
Over 1.5
72.1%
1.39
1.57 Betano
63.7%
+8.4
Total goals
Under 1.5
27.9%
3.59
2.92 Betano
34.2%
-6.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
45.9%
2.18
2.70 Bet365
37.0%
+8.9
Total goals
Under 2.5
54.1%
1.85
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
-7.6
Total goals
Over 3.5
24.5%
4.08
5.50 Bet365
18.2%
+6.3
Total goals
Under 3.5
75.5%
1.32
1.20 Bet365
83.3%
-7.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
51.6%
1.94
2.20 Bet365
45.5%
+6.2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
48.4%
2.07
1.87 Betfair
53.5%
-5.1
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Vasco DA Gama v Boca Juniors: too close to call
Our model makes Vasco DA Gama 32% to win this CONMEBOL Sudamericana fixture, with the draw at 28% and Boca Juniors at 39%. The goal projection is 1.18 for Vasco DA Gama against 1.33 for Boca Juniors — a slight edge to Boca Juniors on expected output. A combined 2.51 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 46% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Vasco DA Gama
Metric
Boca Juniors
2.20
Goals scored
2.20
0.40 (better)
Goals conceded
1.00
2.02 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.90
—
Big chances *
—
6.60 (better)
Shots on target
4.50
18.80 (better)
Total shots
14.75
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
8.00 (better)
Corners
3.25
56.6
Possession %
62.5 (better)
498
Passes
552 (better)
—
Tackles
—
12.20
Fouls
10.75 (better)
1.60
Offsides
1.50 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.20 (better)
Yellow cards
2.25
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Vasco DA Gama v 
Boca Juniors