USA v Canada

1–0

00:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
USA		Canada
5	Shots	7
1	Shots on target	3
4	Corners	8
22	Fouls	21
2	Yellow cards	2
—	Red cards	—
1	Offsides	2
397	Passes	366
51%	Possession %	49%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 82%
Over 2.5: 60%
Over 3.5: 38%
Both score: 63%

Model pick: USA 40%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.60 – 1.51

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	USA	39.6%	2.52	2.00 Betfair	50.0%	-10.4
Match result	Draw	24.8%	4.03	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	+0.4
Match result	Canada	35.5%	2.81	4.60 Betfair	21.7%	+13.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	82.3%	1.22	1.23 Betano	81.3%	+1.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	17.7%	5.64	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	-2.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	60.2%	1.66	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	+4.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	39.8%	2.51	2.40 Bet365	41.7%	-1.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	37.8%	2.64	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	+3.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	62.2%	1.61	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	-1.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	62.8%	1.59	1.67 William Hill	59.9%	+2.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	37.2%	2.69	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	-3.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

USA v Canada: too close to call

Our model makes USA 40% to win this Friendlies fixture, with the draw at 25% and Canada at 36%. The goal projection is 1.60 for USA against 1.51 for Canada — almost nothing to USA on expected output. A combined 3.11 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 8%; 1-0 7%; 2-2 7%

This season

Season records for USA and Canada
USA		Canada
8	Played	8
5-0-3	W-D-L	4-3-1
1.88	Pts / game	1.88
2.25	Goals for / game	1.13
1.75	Goals against / game	0.50
75%	Over 2.5	13%
63%	BTTS	25%
25%	Clean sheets	63%
13%	Failed to score	25%
5-0-3	Home record	4-3-0
0-0-0	Away record	0-0-1
W4	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. USA · Canada

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.5	Shots	9.7
4.8	Shots on target	3.0
4.0	Corners	5.3
1.75	Cards	1.00
17.0	Fouls	18.0
57	Possession %	54
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	3 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
8.5	Shots	4.0
3.5	Shots on target	1.0
6.5	Corners	3.7
3.25	Cards	2.67
14.0	Fouls	14.7
43	Possession %	46
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	3 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
USA	Metric	Canada
2.20 (better)	Goals scored	1.80
1.60	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
1.19	Expected goals (xG)	2.11 (better)
	Big chances
3.80	Shots on target	6.00 (better)
11.80	Total shots	14.40 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.60	Corners	8.60 (better)
57.8 (better)	Possession %	52.8
515 (better)	Passes	369
	Tackles
11.80 (better)	Fouls	13.60
2.00	Offsides	1.20 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.60 (better)	Yellow cards	1.80
1.00	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

USA wins: 1
Draws: 0
Canada wins: 0
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

USA v Canada1–02026-10-07