U.N.A.M. - Pumas v 
Cruz Azul
- Over 1.5
- 84%
- Over 2.5
- 63%
- Over 3.5
- 40%
- Both score
- 65%
- Model pick
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas 41%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.70 – 1.53
Advised bets
Free tip
Confidence 5 of 5U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Why this price?
Back U.N.A.M. - Pumas to win at 3.25 with Betano.
Our model puts the chance at 41% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 29%; we judge it at 34%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.95. The offered 3.25 implies only 31%, so the price is 10.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.12 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1.70, Cruz Azul 1.53.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the marketFree
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 41.4% | 2.42 | 3.30 Betano | 30.3% | +11.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 24.2% | 4.13 | 3.70 Betfair | 27.0% | -2.8 |
| Match result | Cruz Azul | 34.4% | 2.91 | 2.10 Betano | 47.6% | -13.3 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 83.8% | 1.19 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 16.2% | 6.18 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 62.7% | 1.59 | 1.70 Betano | 58.8% | +3.9 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 37.3% | 2.68 | 2.22 Betano | 45.0% | -7.7 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 40.5% | 2.47 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 64.6% | 1.55 | 1.62 Bet365 | 61.7% | +2.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 35.4% | 2.83 | 2.32 Betano | 43.1% | -7.7 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a bet is only advised where the gap clears our threshold after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Premium markets
No premium selection on this fixture yet- Asian handicap
- Total goals
The model prices these markets for every fixture. Where a price clears the value threshold, patrons see the selection, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning behind it.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas favoured against Cruz Azul
Our model makes U.N.A.M. - Pumas 41% to win this Liga MX fixture, with the draw at 24% and Cruz Azul at 34%. The goal projection is 1.70 for U.N.A.M. - Pumas against 1.53 for Cruz Azul — a slight edge to U.N.A.M. - Pumas on expected output. A combined 3.23 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 63% and both teams to score at 65%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-2 8%
- 2-2 7%
- 1-0 6%
This season
| U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Cruz Azul | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Played | 10 |
| 3-3-4 | W-D-L | 5-1-4 |
| 1.20 | Pts / game | 1.60 |
| 1.40 | Goals for / game | 1.90 |
| 1.60 | Goals against / game | 1.80 |
| 60% | Over 2.5 | 70% |
| 60% | BTTS | 70% |
| 10% | Clean sheets | 10% |
| 40% | Failed to score | 20% |
| 1-2-2 | Home record | 3-1-2 |
| 2-1-2 | Away record | 2-0-2 |
| L1 | Streak | D1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. U.N.A.M. - Pumas · Cruz Azul
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 15.0 | Shots | 17.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.0 | Shots on target | 7.0 |
| 11.0 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 1.00 | Cards | 4.00 |
| 12.0 | Fouls | 14.0 |
| 54 | Possession % | 49 |
| — | xG | — |
| 1 matches | sample | 1 matches |
Conceded
| 11.0 | Shots | 18.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 7.0 | Shots on target | 7.0 |
| 2.0 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 1.00 |
| 10.0 | Fouls | 16.0 |
| 46 | Possession % | 51 |
| — | xG | — |
| 1 matches | sample | 1 matches |
Form comparison
| U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Metric | Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored | 1.60 (better) |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded | 1.80 (better) |
| 0.81 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.86 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.40 | Shots on target | 6.50 (better) |
| 12.80 | Total shots | 16.00 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 7.00 (better) | Corners | 5.50 |
| 44.2 | Possession % | 51.8 (better) |
| 379 | Passes | 440 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.00 (better) | Fouls | 11.50 |
| 1.60 (better) | Offsides | 2.25 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.20 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.75 |
| 0.67 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to headFull record →
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins
- 1
- Draws
- 2
- Cruz Azul wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 3.00
- Over 2.5
- 75%
- Both score
- 75%
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas v Cruz Azul1–22026-05-25
- Cruz Azul v U.N.A.M. - Pumas0–02026-05-22
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas v Cruz Azul2–22026-03-15
- Cruz Azul v U.N.A.M. - Pumas2–32025-11-09
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +11 | 20 | Toluca won 3 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Club America | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +11 | 20 | Club America won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | +7 | 18 | Guadalajara Chivas won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Club Queretaro | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 17 | Club Queretaro won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Leon | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 17 | Leon won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Atlas | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 17 | Atlas won 1 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 16 | Cruz Azul won 3 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 | Club Tijuana won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Puebla | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 14 | Puebla won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 13 | Monterrey won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | CF Pachuca | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | +4 | 12 | CF Pachuca won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Atletico San Luis | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 | Atletico San Luis won 3 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Atlante FC | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -3 | 11 | Atlante FC won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 | Tigres UANL won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 10 | Santos Laguna won 3 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 | Necaxa won 0 of the last 5 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -18 | 3 | FC Juarez won 1 of the last 5 |