Predicted Edge

TP Mazembe v Club Africain

TP Mazembe won 2 of the last 41–1Club Africain won 2 of the last 4

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
TP Mazembe Club Africain
—Shots—
—Shots on target—
—Corners—
—Fouls—
—Yellow cards—
—Red cards—
—Offsides—
—Passes—
—Possession %—
—xG—
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
25%
Both score
50%
Model pick
TP Mazembe 49%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.00

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultTP Mazembe49.4%2.02———
Match resultDraw26.7%3.75———
Match resultClub Africain23.9%4.19———
Total goalsOver 1.573.0%1.37———
Total goalsUnder 1.527.0%3.70———
Total goalsOver 2.547.0%2.13———
Total goalsUnder 2.553.0%1.89———
Total goalsOver 3.525.4%3.94———
Total goalsUnder 3.574.6%1.34———
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes50.5%1.98———
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No49.5%2.02———

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

TP Mazembe favoured against Club Africain

Our model makes TP Mazembe 49% to win this CAF Champions League fixture, with the draw at 27% and Club Africain at 24%. The goal projection is 1.55 for TP Mazembe against 1.00 for Club Africain — a substantial edge to TP Mazembe on expected output. A combined 2.55 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 13%
1-0 11%
2-1 9%
2-0 9%
0-0 8%

This season

Season records for TP Mazembe and Club Africain
TP Mazembe Club Africain
4Played4
2-1-1W-D-L2-2-0
1.75Pts / game2.00
1.25Goals for / game1.25
0.75Goals against / game0.75
25%Over 2.525%
50%BTTS50%
25%Clean sheets50%
25%Failed to score0%
1-1-0Home record2-0-0
1-0-1Away record0-2-0
L1StreakW1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. TP Mazembe · Club Africain

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots—
—Shots on target—
—Corners—
—Cards—
—Fouls—
—Possession %—
—xG—
2 matchessample2 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots—
—Shots on target—
—Corners—
—Cards—
—Fouls—
—Possession %—
—xG—
2 matchessample2 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
TP MazembeMetricClub Africain
1.80 (better)Goals scored1.00
0.20 (better)Goals conceded0.50
Expected goals (xG)
Big chances
Shots on target
Total shots
Touches in opp. box
Corners
Possession %
Passes
Tackles
Fouls
Offsides
Throw-ins
Yellow cards
Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
TP Mazembe wins
0
Draws
1
Club Africain wins
1
Goals / game
1.50
Over 2.5
0%
Both score
50%