Predicted Edge

Club Africain v TP Mazembe

Club Africain won 2 of the last 41–0TP Mazembe won 2 of the last 4

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Club Africain TP Mazembe
—Shots—
—Shots on target—
—Corners—
—Fouls—
—Yellow cards—
—Red cards—
—Offsides—
—Passes—
—Possession %—
—xG—
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
22%
Both score
49%
Model pick
Club Africain 41%
Likely score
1-1 14%
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.08

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultClub Africain40.7%2.461.62 William Hill61.7%-21.0
Match resultDraw28.9%3.464.60 Betfair21.7%+7.2
Match resultTP Mazembe30.4%3.296.40 Dafabet15.6%+14.7
Total goalsOver 1.569.4%1.44———
Total goalsUnder 1.530.6%3.26———
Total goalsOver 2.542.5%2.352.35 Bet36542.6%-0.1
Total goalsUnder 2.557.5%1.741.85 Bet36554.1%+3.5
Total goalsOver 3.521.7%4.61———
Total goalsUnder 3.578.3%1.28———
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes48.7%2.052.20 William Hill45.5%+3.2
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No51.3%1.951.60 William Hill62.5%-11.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Club Africain favoured against TP Mazembe

Our model makes Club Africain 41% to win this CAF Champions League fixture, with the draw at 29% and TP Mazembe at 30%. The goal projection is 1.30 for Club Africain against 1.08 for TP Mazembe — a slight edge to Club Africain on expected output. A combined 2.38 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 42% and both teams to score at 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 14%
1-0 11%
0-0 10%
0-1 9%
2-1 8%

This season

Season records for Club Africain and TP Mazembe
Club Africain TP Mazembe
4Played4
2-2-0W-D-L2-1-1
2.00Pts / game1.75
1.25Goals for / game1.25
0.75Goals against / game0.75
25%Over 2.525%
50%BTTS50%
50%Clean sheets25%
0%Failed to score25%
2-0-0Home record1-1-0
0-2-0Away record1-0-1
W1StreakL1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Club Africain · TP Mazembe

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots—
—Shots on target—
—Corners—
—Cards—
—Fouls—
—Possession %—
—xG—
2 matchessample2 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots—
—Shots on target—
—Corners—
—Cards—
—Fouls—
—Possession %—
—xG—
2 matchessample2 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Club AfricainMetricTP Mazembe
0.75Goals scored2.00 (better)
0.75Goals conceded0.40 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
Big chances
Shots on target
Total shots
Touches in opp. box
Corners
Possession %
Passes
Tackles
Fouls
Offsides
Throw-ins
Yellow cards
Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Club Africain wins
1
Draws
1
TP Mazembe wins
0
Goals / game
1.50
Over 2.5
0%
Both score
50%