SV Darmstadt 98 v 
FC St. Pauli
Match statistics
| SV Darmstadt 98 | FC St. Pauli | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Shots | 18 |
| 0 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 3 | Offsides | 2 |
| 342 | Passes | 601 |
| 36% | Possession % | 64% |
| 0.81 | xG | 1.91 |
- Over 1.5
- 73%
- Over 2.5
- 47%
- Over 3.5
- 25%
- Both score
- 51%
- Model pick
- SV Darmstadt 98 46%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.49 – 1.06
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5SV Darmstadt 98
Why this price?
Back SV Darmstadt 98 to win at 2.90 with William Hill.
Our model puts the chance at 46% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 32%; we judge it at 38%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.66. The offered 2.90 implies only 34%, so the price is 9.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.20 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: SV Darmstadt 98 1.49, FC St. Pauli 1.06.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | SV Darmstadt 98 | 46.5% | 2.15 | 3.20 Betano | 31.3% | +15.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 27.2% | 3.67 | 3.75 Betfair | 26.7% | +0.5 |
| Match result | FC St. Pauli | 26.3% | 3.80 | 2.33 Dafabet | 42.9% | -16.6 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 72.8% | 1.37 | 1.27 Betano | 78.7% | -5.9 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 27.2% | 3.68 | 4.35 Betano | 23.0% | +4.2 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 46.8% | 2.14 | 1.82 Betano | 54.9% | -8.2 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 53.2% | 1.88 | 2.18 Betano | 45.9% | +7.4 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 25.2% | 3.97 | 3.00 Bet365 | 33.3% | -8.1 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 74.8% | 1.34 | 1.43 BetVictor | 69.9% | +4.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 51.1% | 1.96 | 1.67 Bet365 | 59.9% | -8.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 48.9% | 2.05 | 2.38 Betfair | 42.0% | +6.8 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
SV Darmstadt 98 favoured against FC St. Pauli
Our model makes SV Darmstadt 98 47% to win this 2. Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 27% and FC St. Pauli at 26%. The goal projection is 1.49 for SV Darmstadt 98 against 1.06 for FC St. Pauli — a clear edge to SV Darmstadt 98 on expected output. A combined 2.54 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 1-0 11%
- 2-1 9%
- 2-0 9%
- 0-0 8%
This season
| SV Darmstadt 98 | FC St. Pauli | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Played | 11 |
| 2-3-6 | W-D-L | 2-6-3 |
| 0.82 | Pts / game | 1.09 |
| 0.82 | Goals for / game | 1.18 |
| 1.91 | Goals against / game | 1.45 |
| 55% | Over 2.5 | 45% |
| 45% | BTTS | 73% |
| 9% | Clean sheets | 27% |
| 55% | Failed to score | 9% |
| 2-3-1 | Home record | 2-1-2 |
| 0-0-5 | Away record | 0-5-1 |
| L1 | Streak | L2 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. SV Darmstadt 98 · FC St. Pauli
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.4 | Shots | 16.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.6 | Shots on target | 4.8 |
| 4.6 | Corners | 5.2 |
| 2.40 | Cards | 2.60 |
| 9.6 | Fouls | 13.8 |
| 41 | Possession % | 53 |
| 1.04 | xG | 1.80 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 15.4 | Shots | 12.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 4.4 |
| 6.6 | Corners | 3.8 |
| 2.60 | Cards | 2.60 |
| 12.0 | Fouls | 12.4 |
| 59 | Possession % | 47 |
| 1.52 | xG | 1.45 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| SV Darmstadt 98 | Metric | FC St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| 2.60 (better) | Goals scored | 1.40 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded | 0.80 (better) |
| 1.39 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 0.88 |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.50 (better) | Shots on target | 4.25 |
| 12.25 (better) | Total shots | 11.50 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.75 | Corners | 6.00 (better) |
| 41.0 | Possession % | 43.5 (better) |
| 343 | Passes | 405 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 13.00 | Fouls | 11.25 (better) |
| 2.50 (better) | Offsides | 3.75 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.50 | Yellow cards | 2.00 (better) |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.50 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- SV Darmstadt 98 wins
- 0
- Draws
- 1
- FC St. Pauli wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 0.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 0%
- SV Darmstadt 98 v FC St. Pauli0–02026-10-23
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | +16 | 31 | Hertha BSC won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +13 | 24 | 1. FC Nürnberg won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | +3 | 21 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +11 | 20 | 1. FC Magdeburg won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | VfL Wolfsburg | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | +10 | 19 | VfL Wolfsburg won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Arminia Bielefeld | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 17 | Arminia Bielefeld won 4 of the last 5 |
| 7 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 16 | 1. FC Heidenheim won 0 of the last 5 |
| 8 | VfL Bochum | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 | VfL Bochum won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | FC St. Pauli | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -3 | 12 | FC St. Pauli won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Hannover 96 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 | Hannover 96 won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Energie Cottbus | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 | Energie Cottbus won 0 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 11 | Eintracht Braunschweig won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | VfL Osnabrück | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 | VfL Osnabrück won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Dynamo Dresden | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 | Dynamo Dresden won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Karlsruher SC | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 11 | Karlsruher SC won 2 of the last 5 |
| 17 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -12 | 9 | SV Darmstadt 98 won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 8 | Holstein Kiel won 1 of the last 5 |