SV Darmstadt 98 v 1. FC Magdeburg

17th1–14th

12:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
SV Darmstadt 98		1. FC Magdeburg
15	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	2
7	Corners	5
7	Fouls	10
2	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
—	Offsides	—
273	Passes	638
31%	Possession %	69%
1.30	xG	0.83

Over 1.5: 88%
Over 2.5: 69%
Over 3.5: 48%
Both score: 70%

Model pick: 1. FC Magdeburg 41%
Likely score: 1-1 9%
Expected goals: 1.72 – 1.85

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Draw	22.9%	4.37	3.80 Betano	26.3%	-3.4
Match result	1. FC Magdeburg	41.2%	2.43	2.32 Betano	43.1%	-1.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	87.5%	1.14	1.18 Betano	84.7%	+2.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	12.5%	8.03	5.50 Bet365	18.2%	-5.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	69.1%	1.45	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	+5.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	30.9%	3.24	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	-8.3
Match result	SV Darmstadt 98	35.9%	2.79	2.92 Betano	34.2%	+1.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	47.7%	2.09	2.40 Betano	41.7%	+6.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	52.3%	1.91	1.62 Betano	61.7%	-9.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	69.6%	1.44	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	+2.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	30.4%	3.29	2.75 Betfair	36.4%	-5.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

SV Darmstadt 98 v 1. FC Magdeburg: too close to call

Our model makes SV Darmstadt 98 36% to win this 2. Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 23% and 1. FC Magdeburg at 41%. The goal projection is 1.72 for SV Darmstadt 98 against 1.85 for 1. FC Magdeburg — a slight edge to 1. FC Magdeburg on expected output. A combined 3.57 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 69% and both teams to score at 70%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 9%; 1-2 8%; 2-1 8%; 2-2 7%; 1-3 5%

This season

Season records for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg
SV Darmstadt 98		1. FC Magdeburg
11	Played	11
2-3-6	W-D-L	6-2-3
0.82	Pts / game	1.82
0.82	Goals for / game	2.27
1.91	Goals against / game	1.27
55%	Over 2.5	64%
45%	BTTS	55%
9%	Clean sheets	36%
55%	Failed to score	9%
2-3-1	Home record	5-0-1
0-0-5	Away record	1-2-2
L1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. SV Darmstadt 98 · 1. FC Magdeburg

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.4	Shots	14.2
2.6	Shots on target	5.6
4.6	Corners	4.2
2.40	Cards	1.80
9.6	Fouls	8.4
41	Possession %	56
1.04	xG	1.76
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.4	Shots	13.2
4.8	Shots on target	4.0
6.6	Corners	5.6
2.60	Cards	2.25
12.0	Fouls	12.4
59	Possession %	44
1.52	xG	1.26
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
SV Darmstadt 98	Metric	1. FC Magdeburg
2.20 (better)	Goals scored	1.60
2.00	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
0.83	Expected goals (xG)	0.99 (better)
	Big chances
2.75	Shots on target	6.60 (better)
10.25	Total shots	16.60 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.25	Corners	5.00 (better)
43.5	Possession %	56.8 (better)
350	Passes	536 (better)
	Tackles
9.50	Fouls	9.00 (better)
2.25	Offsides	2.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.20 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

SV Darmstadt 98 wins: 0
Draws: 3
1. FC Magdeburg wins: 0
Goals / game: 1.33
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 67%

SV Darmstadt 98 v 1. FC Magdeburg1–12026-10-31
1. FC Magdeburg v SV Darmstadt 981–12026-03-13
SV Darmstadt 98 v 1. FC Magdeburg0–02025-10-19

2. Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Hertha BSC	11	10	1	0	+16	31	Hertha BSC won 4 of the last 5
2	1. FC Nürnberg	11	7	3	1	+13	24	1. FC Nürnberg won 2 of the last 5
3	1. FC Kaiserslautern	11	6	3	2	+3	21	1. FC Kaiserslautern won 3 of the last 5
4	1. FC Magdeburg	11	6	2	3	+11	20	1. FC Magdeburg won 3 of the last 5
5	VfL Wolfsburg	11	5	4	2	+10	19	VfL Wolfsburg won 2 of the last 5
6	Arminia Bielefeld	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Arminia Bielefeld won 4 of the last 5
7	1. FC Heidenheim	11	4	4	3	-1	16	1. FC Heidenheim won 0 of the last 5
8	VfL Bochum	11	4	2	5	-2	14	VfL Bochum won 2 of the last 5
9	FC St. Pauli	11	2	6	3	-3	12	FC St. Pauli won 1 of the last 5
10	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	11	3	3	5	-6	12	SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 2 of the last 5
11	Hannover 96	11	3	3	5	-6	12	Hannover 96 won 1 of the last 5
12	Energie Cottbus	11	2	5	4	-2	11	Energie Cottbus won 0 of the last 5
13	Eintracht Braunschweig	11	3	2	6	-2	11	Eintracht Braunschweig won 2 of the last 5
14	VfL Osnabrück	11	3	2	6	-4	11	VfL Osnabrück won 1 of the last 5
15	Dynamo Dresden	11	3	2	6	-5	11	Dynamo Dresden won 2 of the last 5
16	Karlsruher SC	11	3	2	6	-9	11	Karlsruher SC won 2 of the last 5
17	SV Darmstadt 98	11	2	3	6	-12	9	SV Darmstadt 98 won 1 of the last 5
18	Holstein Kiel	11	1	5	5	-3	8	Holstein Kiel won 1 of the last 5