Stockport County v AFC Wimbledon

2nd2–118th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Stockport County		AFC Wimbledon
18	Shots	10
3	Shots on target	5
10	Corners	4
3	Fouls	9
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	7
720	Passes	294
70%	Possession %	30%
2.85	xG	1.01

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 57%
Over 3.5: 35%
Both score: 50%

Model pick: Stockport County 68%
Likely score: 2-0 12%
Expected goals: 2.15 – 0.81

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	50.3%	1.99	1.91 William Hill	52.4%	-2.0
Match result	Stockport County	67.7%	1.48	1.29 William Hill	77.5%	-9.8
Match result	Draw	19.9%	5.04	6.20 Dafabet	16.1%	+3.7
Match result	AFC Wimbledon	12.4%	8.04	10.50 BetVictor	9.5%	+2.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	80.1%	1.25	1.15 Betano	87.0%	-6.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	19.9%	5.01	6.00 Bet365	16.7%	+3.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	57.0%	1.76	1.48 Bet365	67.6%	-10.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	43.0%	2.32	2.70 Bet365	37.0%	+6.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	34.6%	2.89	2.18 Betano	45.9%	-11.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	65.4%	1.53	1.70 Betano	58.8%	+6.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	49.7%	2.01	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-2.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Stockport County favoured against AFC Wimbledon

Our model makes Stockport County 68% to win this League One fixture, with the draw at 20% and AFC Wimbledon at 12%. The goal projection is 2.15 for Stockport County against 0.81 for AFC Wimbledon — a commanding edge to Stockport County on expected output. A combined 2.97 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Stockport County is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 32% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-0 12%; 1-0 11%; 2-1 10%; 1-1 9%; 3-0 9%

This season

Season records for Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon
Stockport County		AFC Wimbledon
14	Played	13
8-2-4	W-D-L	3-4-6
1.86	Pts / game	1.00
1.86	Goals for / game	0.69
1.00	Goals against / game	1.62
50%	Over 2.5	46%
50%	BTTS	38%
36%	Clean sheets	38%
21%	Failed to score	38%
5-0-2	Home record	2-3-1
3-2-2	Away record	1-1-5
W1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Stockport County · AFC Wimbledon

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.6	Shots	10.8
4.6	Shots on target	2.8
7.9	Corners	5.7
1.29	Cards	1.17
8.0	Fouls	10.8
66	Possession %	40
2.47	xG	0.89
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.1	Shots	17.7
4.0	Shots on target	6.5
3.9	Corners	5.8
2.14	Cards	1.17
9.9	Fouls	7.8
34	Possession %	60
0.91	xG	2.16
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Stockport County	Metric	AFC Wimbledon
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	0.25
0.20 (better)	Goals conceded	2.50
2.14 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.61
	Big chances
5.40 (better)	Shots on target	2.75
16.40 (better)	Total shots	11.75
	Touches in opp. box
7.40	Corners	7.75 (better)
65.2 (better)	Possession %	47.3
615 (better)	Passes	348
	Tackles
8.40 (better)	Fouls	13.00
1.80	Offsides	1.75 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.00 (better)	Yellow cards	1.25
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Stockport County wins: 3
Draws: 0
AFC Wimbledon wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 33%

Stockport County v AFC Wimbledon2–12026-10-31
AFC Wimbledon v Stockport County0–22026-04-15
Stockport County v AFC Wimbledon3–02026-03-28

League One table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Huddersfield	14	8	5	1	+16	29	Huddersfield won 4 of the last 5
2	Stockport County	14	8	2	4	+12	26	Stockport County won 3 of the last 5
3	Oxford United	13	7	5	1	+11	26	Oxford United won 3 of the last 5
4	Luton	14	7	3	4	+6	24	Luton won 4 of the last 5
5	Plymouth	14	7	2	5	+2	23	Plymouth won 2 of the last 5
6	Reading	14	6	4	4	+10	22	Reading won 2 of the last 5
7	Bradford	13	6	4	3	+2	22	Bradford won 1 of the last 5
8	Cambridge United	14	5	6	3	0	21	Cambridge United won 1 of the last 5
9	Sheffield Wednesday	13	5	5	3	+8	20	Sheffield Wednesday won 1 of the last 5
10	Leicester	13	5	4	4	+3	19	Leicester won 3 of the last 5
11	Mansfield Town	13	5	4	4	+2	19	Mansfield Town won 2 of the last 5
12	Milton Keynes Dons	13	4	6	3	+2	18	Milton Keynes Dons won 4 of the last 5
13	Wycombe	13	4	6	3	-2	18	Wycombe won 2 of the last 5
14	Leyton Orient	13	5	2	6	+5	17	Leyton Orient won 2 of the last 5
15	Burton Albion	14	4	5	5	-3	17	Burton Albion won 1 of the last 5
16	Stevenage	12	4	4	4	+4	16	Stevenage won 2 of the last 5
17	Notts County	12	3	5	4	-1	14	Notts County won 2 of the last 5
18	AFC Wimbledon	13	3	4	6	-12	13	AFC Wimbledon won 0 of the last 5
19	Blackpool	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Blackpool won 1 of the last 5
20	Doncaster	13	3	3	7	-8	12	Doncaster won 1 of the last 5
21	Wigan	14	3	2	9	-11	11	Wigan won 1 of the last 5
22	Peterborough	13	2	4	7	-12	10	Peterborough won 1 of the last 5
23	Barnsley	12	2	3	7	-10	9	Barnsley won 0 of the last 5
24	Bromley	13	2	3	8	-20	9	Bromley won 0 of the last 5