Stevenage v Plymouth

16th3–05th

18:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Stevenage		Plymouth
17	Shots	14
7	Shots on target	1
5	Corners	5
9	Fouls	17
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	2
359	Passes	380
49%	Possession %	51%
1.32	xG	0.97

Over 1.5: 75%
Over 2.5: 50%
Over 3.5: 28%
Both score: 54%

Model pick: Plymouth 45%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.16 – 1.52

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Stevenage	28.4%	3.53	2.67 Betano	37.5%	-9.1
Match result	Draw	26.6%	3.75	3.50 Betfair	28.6%	-1.9
Match result	Plymouth	45.0%	2.22	2.65 Dafabet	37.7%	+7.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	75.4%	1.33	1.29 BetVictor	77.5%	-2.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	24.6%	4.07	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	-1.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	50.2%	1.99	1.90 Bet365	52.6%	-2.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	49.8%	2.01	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-1.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	28.2%	3.55	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	-2.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	71.8%	1.39	1.36 Betfair	73.5%	-1.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	54.3%	1.84	1.70 Bet365	58.8%	-4.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	45.7%	2.19	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	-0.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Plymouth favoured against Stevenage

Our model makes Stevenage 28% to win this League One fixture, with the draw at 27% and Plymouth at 45%. The goal projection is 1.16 for Stevenage against 1.52 for Plymouth — a clear edge to Plymouth on expected output. A combined 2.68 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 10%; 1-2 9%; 0-2 8%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for Stevenage and Plymouth
Stevenage		Plymouth
12	Played	14
4-4-4	W-D-L	7-2-5
1.33	Pts / game	1.64
1.42	Goals for / game	1.50
1.08	Goals against / game	1.36
50%	Over 2.5	50%
50%	BTTS	43%
25%	Clean sheets	29%
33%	Failed to score	36%
3-1-2	Home record	3-1-3
1-3-2	Away record	4-1-2
D1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Stevenage · Plymouth

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.4	Shots	14.1
4.0	Shots on target	4.1
3.8	Corners	3.9
1.00	Cards	1.43
10.2	Fouls	12.9
45	Possession %	50
1.24	xG	1.20
5 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.2	Shots	15.0
3.0	Shots on target	5.4
8.2	Corners	7.1
1.80	Cards	1.57
14.6	Fouls	11.0
55	Possession %	50
1.43	xG	1.59
5 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Stevenage	Metric	Plymouth
2.25 (better)	Goals scored	2.20
0.75 (better)	Goals conceded	1.00
1.81 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.74
	Big chances
6.25	Shots on target	7.00 (better)
15.75	Total shots	16.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.50 (better)	Corners	4.80
52.5	Possession %	55.4 (better)
389	Passes	447 (better)
	Tackles
11.00 (better)	Fouls	13.80
1.25 (better)	Offsides	4.20
	Throw-ins
1.00 (better)	Yellow cards	1.40
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Stevenage wins: 1
Draws: 1
Plymouth wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

Stevenage v Plymouth3–02026-10-20
Plymouth v Stevenage1–02026-03-17
Stevenage v Plymouth1–12026-01-01

League One table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Huddersfield	14	8	5	1	+16	29	Huddersfield won 4 of the last 5
2	Stockport County	14	8	2	4	+12	26	Stockport County won 3 of the last 5
3	Oxford United	13	7	5	1	+11	26	Oxford United won 3 of the last 5
4	Luton	14	7	3	4	+6	24	Luton won 4 of the last 5
5	Plymouth	14	7	2	5	+2	23	Plymouth won 2 of the last 5
6	Reading	14	6	4	4	+10	22	Reading won 2 of the last 5
7	Bradford	13	6	4	3	+2	22	Bradford won 1 of the last 5
8	Cambridge United	14	5	6	3	0	21	Cambridge United won 1 of the last 5
9	Sheffield Wednesday	13	5	5	3	+8	20	Sheffield Wednesday won 1 of the last 5
10	Leicester	13	5	4	4	+3	19	Leicester won 3 of the last 5
11	Mansfield Town	13	5	4	4	+2	19	Mansfield Town won 2 of the last 5
12	Milton Keynes Dons	13	4	6	3	+2	18	Milton Keynes Dons won 4 of the last 5
13	Wycombe	13	4	6	3	-2	18	Wycombe won 2 of the last 5
14	Leyton Orient	13	5	2	6	+5	17	Leyton Orient won 2 of the last 5
15	Burton Albion	14	4	5	5	-3	17	Burton Albion won 1 of the last 5
16	Stevenage	12	4	4	4	+4	16	Stevenage won 2 of the last 5
17	Notts County	12	3	5	4	-1	14	Notts County won 2 of the last 5
18	AFC Wimbledon	13	3	4	6	-12	13	AFC Wimbledon won 0 of the last 5
19	Blackpool	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Blackpool won 1 of the last 5
20	Doncaster	13	3	3	7	-8	12	Doncaster won 1 of the last 5
21	Wigan	14	3	2	9	-11	11	Wigan won 1 of the last 5
22	Peterborough	13	2	4	7	-12	10	Peterborough won 1 of the last 5
23	Barnsley	12	2	3	7	-10	9	Barnsley won 0 of the last 5
24	Bromley	13	2	3	8	-20	9	Bromley won 0 of the last 5