SpVgg Greuther Fürth v 
Holstein Kiel
Match statistics
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Holstein Kiel | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 337 | Passes | 397 |
| 47% | Possession % | 53% |
| 0.79 | xG | 1.25 |
- Over 1.5
- 75%
- Over 2.5
- 49%
- Over 3.5
- 27%
- Both score
- 54%
- Model pick
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth 43%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.46 – 1.18
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Under 2.5
Why this price?
Back under 2.5 goals at 2.62 with Betano — 2 goals or fewer in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 51% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 37%; we judge it at 42%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.36. The offered 2.62 implies only 38%, so the price is 10.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.67 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.46, Holstein Kiel 1.18.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Holstein Kiel +0.25
Why this price?
Back Holstein Kiel +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.33 with BetVictor — Holstein Kiel starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.
Our model puts the chance at 50% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 45%; we judge it at 47%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.11. The offered 2.33 implies only 43%, so the price is 10.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.95 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.46, Holstein Kiel 1.18.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 43.0% | 2.32 | 2.60 Betano | 38.5% | +4.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 27.1% | 3.70 | 3.80 Betano | 26.3% | +0.7 |
| Match result | Holstein Kiel | 29.9% | 3.34 | 2.57 Betano | 38.9% | -9.0 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 74.7% | 1.34 | 1.20 Betano | 83.3% | -8.6 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 25.3% | 3.96 | 5.50 BetVictor | 18.2% | +7.1 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 49.3% | 2.03 | 1.60 Betano | 62.5% | -13.2 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 50.7% | 1.97 | 2.42 Betano | 41.3% | +9.4 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 27.4% | 3.65 | 2.47 Betano | 40.5% | -13.1 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 72.6% | 1.38 | 1.57 Betano | 63.7% | +8.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 53.9% | 1.86 | 1.50 Bet365 | 66.7% | -12.8 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 46.1% | 2.17 | 2.70 William Hill | 37.0% | +9.1 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth favoured against Holstein Kiel
Our model makes SpVgg Greuther Fürth 43% to win this 2. Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 27% and Holstein Kiel at 30%. The goal projection is 1.46 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth against 1.18 for Holstein Kiel — a clear edge to SpVgg Greuther Fürth on expected output. A combined 2.65 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 1-0 10%
- 2-1 9%
- 0-1 8%
- 0-0 8%
This season
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Holstein Kiel | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Played | 11 |
| 3-3-5 | W-D-L | 1-5-5 |
| 1.09 | Pts / game | 0.73 |
| 1.18 | Goals for / game | 1.00 |
| 1.73 | Goals against / game | 1.27 |
| 45% | Over 2.5 | 45% |
| 55% | BTTS | 45% |
| 18% | Clean sheets | 18% |
| 27% | Failed to score | 45% |
| 2-1-2 | Home record | 1-4-1 |
| 1-2-3 | Away record | 0-1-4 |
| L1 | Streak | L2 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. SpVgg Greuther Fürth · Holstein Kiel
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 14.6 | Shots | 12.2 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.2 | Shots on target | 3.0 |
| 8.6 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 0.45 | Cards | 2.80 |
| 8.4 | Fouls | 13.4 |
| 51 | Possession % | 55 |
| 0.88 | xG | 1.13 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 15.4 | Shots | 10.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.2 | Shots on target | 4.0 |
| 5.6 | Corners | 6.4 |
| 1.20 | Cards | 2.60 |
| 9.4 | Fouls | 10.2 |
| 49 | Possession % | 45 |
| 1.77 | xG | 1.52 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Metric | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 (better) | Goals scored | 0.80 |
| 1.80 | Goals conceded | 0.80 (better) |
| 1.00 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.15 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.50 (better) | Shots on target | 2.25 |
| 14.00 (better) | Total shots | 12.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 7.00 (better) | Corners | 5.50 |
| 49.8 | Possession % | 53.8 (better) |
| 431 | Passes | 459 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 8.00 (better) | Fouls | 13.50 |
| 2.00 | Offsides | 1.25 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.00 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.75 |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 1.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- SpVgg Greuther Fürth wins
- 2
- Draws
- 0
- Holstein Kiel wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 33%
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth v Holstein Kiel1–02026-11-01
- Holstein Kiel v SpVgg Greuther Fürth1–22026-01-31
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth v Holstein Kiel0–22025-08-24
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | +16 | 31 | Hertha BSC won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +13 | 24 | 1. FC Nürnberg won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | +3 | 21 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +11 | 20 | 1. FC Magdeburg won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | VfL Wolfsburg | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | +10 | 19 | VfL Wolfsburg won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Arminia Bielefeld | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 17 | Arminia Bielefeld won 4 of the last 5 |
| 7 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 16 | 1. FC Heidenheim won 0 of the last 5 |
| 8 | VfL Bochum | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 | VfL Bochum won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | FC St. Pauli | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -3 | 12 | FC St. Pauli won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Hannover 96 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 | Hannover 96 won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Energie Cottbus | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 | Energie Cottbus won 0 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 11 | Eintracht Braunschweig won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | VfL Osnabrück | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 | VfL Osnabrück won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Dynamo Dresden | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 | Dynamo Dresden won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Karlsruher SC | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 11 | Karlsruher SC won 2 of the last 5 |
| 17 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -12 | 9 | SV Darmstadt 98 won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 8 | Holstein Kiel won 1 of the last 5 |