No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
45.7%
2.19
2.20 Betano
45.5%
+0.2
Match result
Draw
23.9%
4.19
3.80 Betfair
26.3%
-2.4
Match result
Eintracht Braunschweig
30.4%
3.29
3.10 Bet365
32.3%
-1.8
Total goals
Over 1.5
83.9%
1.19
1.18 Betano
84.7%
-0.8
Total goals
Under 1.5
16.1%
6.22
5.50 Bet365
18.2%
-2.1
Total goals
Over 2.5
62.9%
1.59
1.57 Betano
63.7%
-0.8
Total goals
Under 2.5
37.1%
2.69
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
-2.1
Total goals
Over 3.5
40.7%
2.46
2.37 Betano
42.2%
-1.5
Total goals
Under 3.5
59.3%
1.69
1.62 Betano
61.7%
-2.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
64.2%
1.56
1.50 Bet365
66.7%
-2.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
35.8%
2.79
2.70 BetVictor
37.0%
-1.2
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth favoured against Eintracht Braunschweig
Our model makes SpVgg Greuther Fürth 46% to win this 2. Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 24% and Eintracht Braunschweig at 30%. The goal projection is 1.80 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth against 1.44 for Eintracht Braunschweig — a clear edge to SpVgg Greuther Fürth on expected output. A combined 3.24 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 63% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 11%
2-1 9%
1-2 7%
2-2 7%
1-0 7%
This season
Season records for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Eintracht Braunschweig
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Metric
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.20 (better)
Goals scored
0.80
2.20
Goals conceded
2.00 (better)
1.44 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.40
—
Big chances *
—
5.50
Shots on target
6.00 (better)
13.75
Total shots
14.25 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.75 (better)
Corners
3.50
52.3 (better)
Possession %
42.8
457 (better)
Passes
394
—
Tackles
—
9.75
Fouls
9.75
1.00 (better)
Offsides
3.33
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.50 (better)
Yellow cards
3.50
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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SpVgg Greuther Fürth v 
Eintracht Braunschweig