Spain v Croatia

4–1

18:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Spain		Croatia
16	Shots	5
7	Shots on target	2
6	Corners	2
9	Fouls	10
1	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
5	Offsides	0
620	Passes	345
64%	Possession %	36%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 87%
Over 2.5: 69%
Over 3.5: 47%
Both score: 69%

Model pick: Croatia 46%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.59 – 1.94

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Spain	31.4%	3.18	1.25 Betano	80.0%	-48.6
Match result	Draw	22.9%	4.36	7.50 Bet365	13.3%	+9.6
Match result	Croatia	45.7%	2.19	14.50 Betano	6.9%	+38.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	87.3%	1.15	1.14 Betano	87.7%	-0.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	12.7%	7.89	6.50 BetVictor	15.4%	-2.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	68.6%	1.46	1.45 Betano	69.0%	-0.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	31.4%	3.18	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	-3.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	47.1%	2.12	2.20 Betano	45.5%	+1.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	52.9%	1.89	1.75 Betano	57.1%	-4.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	68.8%	1.45	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	+23.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	31.2%	3.20	1.83 William Hill	54.6%	-23.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Croatia favoured against Spain

Our model makes Spain 31% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 23% and Croatia at 46%. The goal projection is 1.59 for Spain against 1.94 for Croatia — a clear edge to Croatia on expected output. A combined 3.54 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 69% and both teams to score at 69%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 7%; 2-2 7%; 1-3 6%

This season

Season records for Spain and Croatia
Spain		Croatia
4	Played	4
4-0-0	W-D-L	1-0-3
3.00	Pts / game	0.75
3.00	Goals for / game	1.00
1.25	Goals against / game	3.50
100%	Over 2.5	100%
100%	BTTS	75%
0%	Clean sheets	0%
0%	Failed to score	25%
2-0-0	Home record	0-0-2
2-0-0	Away record	1-0-1
W4	Streak	L3

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Spain · Croatia

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.8	Shots	10.8
6.3	Shots on target	3.3
5.0	Corners	3.0
1.00	Cards	2.00
11.5	Fouls	10.3
65	Possession %	39
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
8.3	Shots	12.5
3.5	Shots on target	5.5
2.8	Corners	4.8
3.50	Cards	1.25
11.5	Fouls	7.8
36	Possession %	61
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Spain	Metric	Croatia
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.60
0.60 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
1.84 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.03
	Big chances
6.60 (better)	Shots on target	4.40
15.40 (better)	Total shots	10.60
	Touches in opp. box
5.00 (better)	Corners	3.60
58.4 (better)	Possession %	50.8
612 (better)	Passes	482
	Tackles
15.00	Fouls	10.80 (better)
2.80	Offsides	1.60 (better)
	Throw-ins
0.80 (better)	Yellow cards	1.25
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Spain wins: 2
Draws: 0
Croatia wins: 0
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Croatia v Spain1–22026-10-06
Spain v Croatia4–12026-09-29