Croatia v Spain

1–2

18:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Croatia		Spain
10	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	3
3	Corners	6
12	Fouls	10
1	Yellow cards	2
1	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	2
300	Passes	777
28%	Possession %	72%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 70%
Over 2.5: 44%
Over 3.5: 23%
Both score: 44%

Model pick: Spain 58%
Likely score: 0-1 14%
Expected goals: 0.76 – 1.66

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Under 2.5

2.40Betfair · fair 2.19 · qualifies at 2.27+ · 1.75u

Why this price?

Back under 2.5 goals at 2.40 with Betfair — 2 goals or fewer in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 56% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 39%; we judge it at 46%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.19. The offered 2.40 implies only 42%, so the price is 9.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.75 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Croatia 0.76, Spain 1.66.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Lost

Free pick

Draw

5.00Betfair · fair 4.63 · qualifies at 4.77+ · 0.49u

Why this price?

Back the draw at 5.00 with Betfair.

Our model puts the chance at 25% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 19%; we judge it at 22%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 4.63. The offered 5.00 implies only 20%, so the price is 7.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.49 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Croatia 0.76, Spain 1.66.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Croatia	16.2%	6.17	11.25 Betano	8.9%	+7.3
Match result	Draw	25.5%	3.92	6.70 Betano	14.9%	+10.6
Match result	Spain	58.3%	1.71	1.36 William Hill	73.5%	-15.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	70.3%	1.42	1.15 Betano	87.0%	-16.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	29.7%	3.37	6.50 BetVictor	15.4%	+14.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	43.7%	2.29	1.50 Betfair	66.7%	-23.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	56.3%	1.77	2.88 Bet365	34.7%	+21.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	22.6%	4.42	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	-23.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	77.4%	1.29	1.73 Bet365	57.8%	+19.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	43.8%	2.28	1.90 Betfair	52.6%	-8.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	56.2%	1.78	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	+9.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Spain favoured against Croatia

Our model makes Croatia 16% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 25% and Spain at 58%. The goal projection is 0.76 for Croatia against 1.66 for Spain — a commanding edge to Spain on expected output. A combined 2.42 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 44% and both teams to score at 44%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-1 14%; 0-2 12%; 1-1 12%; 0-0 10%; 1-2 9%

This season

Season records for Croatia and Spain
Croatia		Spain
4	Played	4
1-0-3	W-D-L	4-0-0
0.75	Pts / game	3.00
1.00	Goals for / game	3.00
3.50	Goals against / game	1.25
100%	Over 2.5	100%
75%	BTTS	100%
0%	Clean sheets	0%
25%	Failed to score	0%
0-0-2	Home record	2-0-0
1-0-1	Away record	2-0-0
L3	Streak	W4

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Croatia · Spain

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.8	Shots	14.8
3.3	Shots on target	6.3
3.0	Corners	5.0
2.00	Cards	1.00
10.3	Fouls	11.5
39	Possession %	65
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.5	Shots	8.3
5.5	Shots on target	3.5
4.8	Corners	2.8
1.25	Cards	3.50
7.8	Fouls	11.5
61	Possession %	36
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Croatia	Metric	Spain
1.60	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
1.60	Goals conceded	0.60 (better)
1.03	Expected goals (xG)	1.84 (better)
	Big chances
4.40	Shots on target	6.60 (better)
10.60	Total shots	15.40 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.60	Corners	5.00 (better)
50.8	Possession %	58.4 (better)
482	Passes	612 (better)
	Tackles
10.80 (better)	Fouls	15.00
1.60 (better)	Offsides	2.80
	Throw-ins
1.25	Yellow cards	0.80 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Croatia wins: 0
Draws: 0
Spain wins: 2
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Croatia v Spain1–22026-10-06
Spain v Croatia4–12026-09-29