Sint Maarten v Anguilla

5–1

00:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Sint Maarten		Anguilla
—	Shots	—
—	Shots on target	—
—	Corners	—
—	Fouls	—
—	Yellow cards	—
—	Red cards	—
—	Offsides	—
—	Passes	—
—	Possession %	—
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 79%
Over 2.5: 55%
Over 3.5: 33%
Both score: 58%

Model pick: Sint Maarten 47%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.67 – 1.23

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Sint Maarten	47.1%	2.13	1.13 BetVictor	88.5%	-41.4
Match result	Draw	25.3%	3.96	7.50 BetVictor	13.3%	+11.9
Match result	Anguilla	27.7%	3.62	13.00 BetVictor	7.7%	+20.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	79.0%	1.26	1.05 BetVictor	95.2%	-16.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	21.0%	4.77	8.00 BetVictor	12.5%	+8.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	55.3%	1.81	1.25 BetVictor	80.0%	-24.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	44.7%	2.24	3.60 BetVictor	27.8%	+16.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	32.9%	3.04	1.69 BetVictor	59.2%	-26.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	67.1%	1.49	2.00 BetVictor	50.0%	+17.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	57.9%	1.73	1.75 BetVictor	57.1%	+0.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	42.1%	2.38	1.95 BetVictor	51.3%	-9.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Sint Maarten favoured against Anguilla

Our model makes Sint Maarten 47% to win this Friendlies fixture, with the draw at 25% and Anguilla at 28%. The goal projection is 1.67 for Sint Maarten against 1.23 for Anguilla — a clear edge to Sint Maarten on expected output. A combined 2.90 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 9%; 1-0 9%; 2-0 8%; 1-2 7%

This season

Season records for Sint Maarten and Anguilla
Sint Maarten		Anguilla
1	Played	6
1-0-0	W-D-L	0-2-4
3.00	Pts / game	0.33
5.00	Goals for / game	0.17
1.00	Goals against / game	3.67
100%	Over 2.5	67%
100%	BTTS	17%
0%	Clean sheets	17%
0%	Failed to score	83%
1-0-0	Home record	0-1-2
0-0-0	Away record	0-1-2
W1	Streak	L4

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sint Maarten · Anguilla

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—	Shots	—
—	Shots on target	—
—	Corners	—
—	Cards	—
—	Fouls	—
—	Possession %	—
—	xG	—
1 matches	sample	1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—	Shots	—
—	Shots on target	—
—	Corners	—
—	Cards	—
—	Fouls	—
—	Possession %	—
—	xG	—
1 matches	sample	1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Sint Maarten	Metric	Anguilla
0.40	Goals scored	0.40
2.00 (better)	Goals conceded	2.80
2.89 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.19
	Big chances
4.00 (better)	Shots on target	1.50
12.25 (better)	Total shots	6.25
	Touches in opp. box
4.50 (better)	Corners	2.75
48.0 (better)	Possession %	26.3
347 (better)	Passes	185
	Tackles
10.50	Fouls	9.00 (better)
1.25	Offsides	1.25
	Throw-ins
1.25 (better)	Yellow cards	1.75
0.25	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Sint Maarten wins: 1
Draws: 0
Anguilla wins: 0
Goals / game: 6.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Sint Maarten v Anguilla5–12026-11-11