Simba v 15 de Agosto

3–0

13:00 UTC

Over 1.5: 72%
Over 2.5: 46%
Over 3.5: 24%
Both score: 51%

Model pick: Simba 44%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.42 – 1.09

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Over 2.5	45.9%	2.18	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 2.5	54.1%	1.85	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 3.5	24.4%	4.09	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 3.5	75.6%	1.32	—	—	—
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	51.0%	1.96	—	—	—
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	49.0%	2.04	—	—	—
Match result	Simba	43.7%	2.29	—	—	—
Match result	Draw	27.8%	3.60	—	—	—
Match result	15 de Agosto	28.5%	3.50	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 1.5	72.1%	1.39	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 1.5	27.9%	3.58	—	—	—

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Simba favoured against 15 de Agosto

Our model makes Simba 44% to win this CAF Champions League fixture, with the draw at 28% and 15 de Agosto at 29%. The goal projection is 1.42 for Simba against 1.09 for 15 de Agosto — a clear edge to Simba on expected output. A combined 2.51 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 46% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 11%; 2-1 9%; 0-0 9%; 0-1 8%

This season

Season records for Simba and 15 de Agosto
Simba		15 de Agosto
4	Played	4
4-0-0	W-D-L	2-0-2
3.00	Pts / game	1.50
4.00	Goals for / game	1.50
0.50	Goals against / game	2.25
75%	Over 2.5	75%
50%	BTTS	25%
50%	Clean sheets	50%
0%	Failed to score	25%
2-0-0	Home record	1-0-1
2-0-0	Away record	1-0-1
W4	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Simba · 15 de Agosto

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
25.0	Shots	2.0
11.0	Shots on target	1.0
9.0	Corners	2.0
1.00	Cards	2.00
—	Fouls	—
64	Possession %	36
—	xG	—
1 matches	sample	1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
2.0	Shots	25.0
1.0	Shots on target	11.0
2.0	Corners	9.0
2.00	Cards	1.00
—	Fouls	—
36	Possession %	64
—	xG	—
1 matches	sample	1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Simba	Metric	15 de Agosto
3.40 (better)	Goals scored	2.00
0.60 (better)	Goals conceded	0.80
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
	Shots on target
	Total shots
	Touches in opp. box
	Corners
	Possession %
	Passes
	Tackles
	Fouls
	Offsides
	Throw-ins
	Yellow cards
	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Simba wins: 2
Draws: 0
15 de Agosto wins: 0
Goals / game: 5.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 50%

Simba v 15 de Agosto3–02026-10-25
15 de Agosto v Simba1–62026-10-21