15 de Agosto v Simba

1–6

12:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
15 de Agosto		Simba
2	Shots	25
1	Shots on target	11
2	Corners	9
—	Fouls	—
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
—	Offsides	—
—	Passes	—
36%	Possession %	64%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 73%
Over 2.5: 47%
Over 3.5: 25%
Both score: 51%

Model pick: 15 de Agosto 45%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.45 – 1.09

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	15 de Agosto	44.8%	2.23	20.00 Dafabet	5.0%	+39.8
Match result	Draw	27.5%	3.64	7.40 Dafabet	13.5%	+14.0
Match result	Simba	27.7%	3.60	1.14 William Hill	87.7%	-60.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	72.7%	1.38	1.17 Betfair	85.5%	-12.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	27.3%	3.66	5.00 Betfair	20.0%	+7.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	46.6%	2.15	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	-17.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	53.4%	1.87	2.40 Betfair	41.7%	+11.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	25.1%	3.99	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	-15.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	74.9%	1.33	1.53 Betfair	65.4%	+9.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	51.4%	1.95	2.80 Betfair	35.7%	+15.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	48.6%	2.06	1.44 William Hill	69.4%	-20.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

15 de Agosto favoured against Simba

Our model makes 15 de Agosto 45% to win this CAF Champions League fixture, with the draw at 27% and Simba at 28%. The goal projection is 1.45 for 15 de Agosto against 1.09 for Simba — a clear edge to 15 de Agosto on expected output. A combined 2.54 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 11%; 2-1 9%; 0-0 9%; 2-0 8%

This season

Season records for 15 de Agosto and Simba
15 de Agosto		Simba
4	Played	4
2-0-2	W-D-L	4-0-0
1.50	Pts / game	3.00
1.50	Goals for / game	4.00
2.25	Goals against / game	0.50
75%	Over 2.5	75%
25%	BTTS	50%
50%	Clean sheets	50%
25%	Failed to score	0%
1-0-1	Home record	2-0-0
1-0-1	Away record	2-0-0
L2	Streak	W4

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. 15 de Agosto · Simba

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
2.0	Shots	25.0
1.0	Shots on target	11.0
2.0	Corners	9.0
2.00	Cards	1.00
—	Fouls	—
36	Possession %	64
—	xG	—
1 matches	sample	1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
25.0	Shots	2.0
11.0	Shots on target	1.0
9.0	Corners	2.0
1.00	Cards	2.00
—	Fouls	—
64	Possession %	36
—	xG	—
1 matches	sample	1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
15 de Agosto	Metric	Simba
2.00	Goals scored	2.40 (better)
0.80	Goals conceded	0.20 (better)
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
	Shots on target
	Total shots
	Touches in opp. box
	Corners
	Possession %
	Passes
	Tackles
	Fouls
	Offsides
	Throw-ins
	Yellow cards
	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

15 de Agosto wins: 0
Draws: 0
Simba wins: 2
Goals / game: 5.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 50%

Simba v 15 de Agosto3–02026-10-25
15 de Agosto v Simba1–62026-10-21