Sheffield Wednesday v Cambridge United

9th1–18th

19:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Sheffield Wednesday		Cambridge United
19	Shots	18
5	Shots on target	9
6	Corners	11
7	Fouls	8
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
—	Offsides	—
574	Passes	309
64%	Possession %	36%
1.73	xG	1.72

Over 1.5: 73%
Over 2.5: 47%
Over 3.5: 25%
Both score: 51%

Model pick: Cambridge United 49%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.02 – 1.54

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Sheffield Wednesday -0.75

2.35Bet365 · fair 2.20 · qualifies at 2.27+ · 1.22u

Why this price?

Back Sheffield Wednesday -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 2.35 with Bet365 — Sheffield Wednesday must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 18% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 63%; we judge it at 45%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.20. The offered 2.35 implies only 43%, so the price is 6.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.22 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Sheffield Wednesday 1.02, Cambridge United 1.54.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Sheffield Wednesday	24.6%	4.07	2.07 Betano	48.3%	-23.7
Match result	Draw	26.8%	3.73	3.75 Betfair	26.7%	+0.1
Match result	Cambridge United	48.6%	2.06	3.50 BetVictor	28.6%	+20.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	73.1%	1.37	1.23 BetVictor	81.3%	-8.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	26.9%	3.71	4.50 Betfair	22.2%	+4.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	47.1%	2.12	1.72 Betano	58.1%	-11.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	52.9%	1.89	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	+9.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	25.5%	3.92	2.67 Betano	37.5%	-12.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	74.5%	1.34	1.50 Betano	66.7%	+7.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	50.8%	1.97	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-10.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	49.2%	2.03	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	+8.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Cambridge United favoured against Sheffield Wednesday

Our model makes Sheffield Wednesday 25% to win this League One fixture, with the draw at 27% and Cambridge United at 49%. The goal projection is 1.02 for Sheffield Wednesday against 1.54 for Cambridge United — a substantial edge to Cambridge United on expected output. A combined 2.56 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 11%; 1-2 9%; 0-2 9%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Sheffield Wednesday and Cambridge United
Sheffield Wednesday		Cambridge United
13	Played	14
5-5-3	W-D-L	5-6-3
1.54	Pts / game	1.50
1.69	Goals for / game	1.50
1.08	Goals against / game	1.50
46%	Over 2.5	64%
54%	BTTS	86%
23%	Clean sheets	7%
38%	Failed to score	7%
2-4-1	Home record	3-2-2
3-1-2	Away record	2-4-1
D2	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sheffield Wednesday · Cambridge United

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.8	Shots	17.1
5.7	Shots on target	5.7
5.2	Corners	10.7
2.50	Cards	1.86
10.5	Fouls	9.7
59	Possession %	54
1.41	xG	1.69
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.2	Shots	12.1
4.7	Shots on target	3.7
7.0	Corners	5.7
1.67	Cards	2.43
13.0	Fouls	11.6
41	Possession %	46
1.49	xG	1.61
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Sheffield Wednesday	Metric	Cambridge United
2.20 (better)	Goals scored	2.00
0.60 (better)	Goals conceded	0.80
1.76	Expected goals (xG)	1.79 (better)
	Big chances
6.00 (better)	Shots on target	5.80
13.40	Total shots	15.40 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.80	Corners	8.60 (better)
54.8 (better)	Possession %	54.0
533 (better)	Passes	389
	Tackles
10.80	Fouls	9.60 (better)
1.20 (better)	Offsides	2.20
	Throw-ins
1.80	Yellow cards	1.80
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Sheffield Wednesday wins: 0
Draws: 1
Cambridge United wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 100%

Sheffield Wednesday v Cambridge United1–12026-10-27

League One table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Huddersfield	14	8	5	1	+16	29	Huddersfield won 4 of the last 5
2	Stockport County	14	8	2	4	+12	26	Stockport County won 3 of the last 5
3	Oxford United	13	7	5	1	+11	26	Oxford United won 3 of the last 5
4	Luton	14	7	3	4	+6	24	Luton won 4 of the last 5
5	Plymouth	14	7	2	5	+2	23	Plymouth won 2 of the last 5
6	Reading	14	6	4	4	+10	22	Reading won 2 of the last 5
7	Bradford	13	6	4	3	+2	22	Bradford won 1 of the last 5
8	Cambridge United	14	5	6	3	0	21	Cambridge United won 1 of the last 5
9	Sheffield Wednesday	13	5	5	3	+8	20	Sheffield Wednesday won 1 of the last 5
10	Leicester	13	5	4	4	+3	19	Leicester won 3 of the last 5
11	Mansfield Town	13	5	4	4	+2	19	Mansfield Town won 2 of the last 5
12	Milton Keynes Dons	13	4	6	3	+2	18	Milton Keynes Dons won 4 of the last 5
13	Wycombe	13	4	6	3	-2	18	Wycombe won 2 of the last 5
14	Leyton Orient	13	5	2	6	+5	17	Leyton Orient won 2 of the last 5
15	Burton Albion	14	4	5	5	-3	17	Burton Albion won 1 of the last 5
16	Stevenage	12	4	4	4	+4	16	Stevenage won 2 of the last 5
17	Notts County	12	3	5	4	-1	14	Notts County won 2 of the last 5
18	AFC Wimbledon	13	3	4	6	-12	13	AFC Wimbledon won 0 of the last 5
19	Blackpool	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Blackpool won 1 of the last 5
20	Doncaster	13	3	3	7	-8	12	Doncaster won 1 of the last 5
21	Wigan	14	3	2	9	-11	11	Wigan won 1 of the last 5
22	Peterborough	13	2	4	7	-12	10	Peterborough won 1 of the last 5
23	Barnsley	12	2	3	7	-10	9	Barnsley won 0 of the last 5
24	Bromley	13	2	3	8	-20	9	Bromley won 0 of the last 5