Sheffield Wednesday won 1 of the last 5DDLLW9th5–0AFC Wimbledon won 0 of the last 5LDLLL18th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Sheffield Wednesday
AFC Wimbledon
25
Shots
7
11
Shots on target
0
2
Corners
4
7
Fouls
13
2
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
0
Offsides
1
511
Passes
369
58%
Possession %
42%
2.64
xG
0.39
40%
30%
30%
1 · Sheffield WednesdayXAFC Wimbledon · 2
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
19%
Both score
46%
Model pick
Sheffield Wednesday 40%
Likely score
1-1 14%
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.03
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Total goals
Under 3.5
80.8%
1.24
1.47 Betano
68.0%
+12.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
46.1%
2.17
1.80 Bet365
55.6%
-9.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
53.9%
1.85
2.20 Betfair
45.5%
+8.5
Match result
Sheffield Wednesday
39.9%
2.51
1.68 Dafabet
59.5%
-19.6
Match result
Draw
29.9%
3.35
4.10 Betfair
24.4%
+5.5
Match result
AFC Wimbledon
30.3%
3.30
5.25 BetVictor
19.0%
+11.2
Total goals
Over 1.5
66.5%
1.50
1.25 Bet365
80.0%
-13.5
Total goals
Under 1.5
33.5%
2.99
4.50 Betfair
22.2%
+11.2
Total goals
Over 2.5
39.2%
2.55
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
-20.7
Total goals
Under 2.5
60.8%
1.65
2.20 Betfair
45.5%
+15.3
Total goals
Over 3.5
19.2%
5.22
2.63 Betfair
38.0%
-18.9
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Sheffield Wednesday favoured against AFC Wimbledon
Our model makes Sheffield Wednesday 40% to win this League One fixture, with the draw at 30% and AFC Wimbledon at 30%. The goal projection is 1.22 for Sheffield Wednesday against 1.03 for AFC Wimbledon — a slight edge to Sheffield Wednesday on expected output. A combined 2.25 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 39% and both teams to score at 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 14%
1-0 12%
0-0 11%
0-1 10%
2-1 8%
This season
Season records for Sheffield Wednesday and AFC Wimbledon
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Sheffield Wednesday
Metric
AFC Wimbledon
1.20 (better)
Goals scored
0.50
0.40
Goals conceded
0.25 (better)
0.78
Expected goals (xG)
1.04 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
4.40 (better)
Shots on target
3.00
10.40
Total shots
10.50 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.20
Corners
5.25 (better)
49.6 (better)
Possession %
42.3
486 (better)
Passes
298
—
Tackles
—
11.20 (better)
Fouls
11.75
1.20 (better)
Offsides
3.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.80
Yellow cards
1.75 (better)
0.00 (better)
Red cards
0.50
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Sheffield Wednesday v 
AFC Wimbledon