SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach won 0 of the last 2LD2–4FC Augsburg won 0 of the last 5LLDLD14th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
FC Augsburg
11
Shots
19
4
Shots on target
9
2
Corners
5
10
Fouls
11
2
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
4
338
Passes
519
41%
Possession %
59%
0.78
xG
1.52
22%
21%
57%
1 · SG Sonnenhof GrossaspachXFC Augsburg · 2
Over 1.5
88%
Over 2.5
71%
Over 3.5
49%
Both score
68%
Model pick
FC Augsburg 57%
Likely score
1-2 9%
Expected goals
1.38 – 2.27
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Total goals
Under 1.5
11.7%
8.54
7.50 Betfair
13.3%
-1.6
Total goals
Over 2.5
70.5%
1.42
1.42 Betano
70.4%
+0.1
Total goals
Under 2.5
29.5%
3.40
3.20 Betfair
31.3%
-1.8
Total goals
Over 3.5
49.5%
2.02
2.10 Betfair
47.6%
+1.8
Total goals
Under 3.5
50.5%
1.98
1.90 Betfair
52.6%
-2.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
67.5%
1.48
1.75 Bet365
57.1%
+10.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
32.5%
3.08
2.15 BetVictor
46.5%
-14.0
Match result
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
22.3%
4.48
10.00 Bet365
10.0%
+12.3
Match result
Draw
20.7%
4.84
6.20 Dafabet
16.1%
+4.5
Match result
FC Augsburg
57.0%
1.75
1.36 Dafabet
73.5%
-16.5
Total goals
Over 1.5
88.3%
1.13
1.13 Betano
88.5%
-0.2
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
FC Augsburg favoured against SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
Our model makes SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 22% to win this DFB Pokal fixture, with the draw at 21% and FC Augsburg at 57%. The goal projection is 1.38 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach against 2.27 for FC Augsburg — a substantial edge to FC Augsburg on expected output. A combined 3.65 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 71% and both teams to score at 68%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-2 9%
1-1 9%
1-3 7%
0-2 7%
2-2 6%
This season
Season records for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and FC Augsburg
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
Metric
FC Augsburg
1.60
Goals scored
2.20 (better)
2.40 (better)
Goals conceded
2.60
2.01
Expected goals (xG)
2.13 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
4.75
Shots on target
5.50 (better)
12.75
Total shots
14.00 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.00
Corners
5.25 (better)
49.3 (better)
Possession %
40.3
424 (better)
Passes
365
—
Tackles
—
13.00
Fouls
10.25 (better)
1.50
Offsides
1.00 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.25
Yellow cards
2.25
0.00
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach v 
FC Augsburg