Servette FC v FC Vaduz

6th2–111th

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Servette FC		FC Vaduz
27	Shots	6
12	Shots on target	3
6	Corners	6
10	Fouls	12
3	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	4
269	Passes	521
65%	Possession %	66%
2.12	xG	0.28

Over 1.5: 88%
Over 2.5: 70%
Over 3.5: 49%
Both score: 70%

Model pick: Servette FC 42%
Likely score: 1-1 9%
Expected goals: 1.89 – 1.74

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

FC Vaduz 0

3.00Bet365 · fair 2.69 · qualifies at 2.77+ · 1.45u

Why this price?

Back FC Vaduz 0 on the Asian handicap at 3.00 with Bet365 — FC Vaduz to win; a draw returns the stake.

Our model puts the chance at 46% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 31%; we judge it at 37%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.69. The offered 3.00 implies only 33%, so the price is 11.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.45 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Servette FC 1.89, FC Vaduz 1.74.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 3.5	50.8%	1.97	1.73 Betfair	57.8%	-7.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	70.5%	1.42	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	+3.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	29.5%	3.39	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	-2.8
Match result	Servette FC	41.6%	2.40	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	-6.0
Match result	Draw	22.6%	4.42	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	-1.8
Match result	FC Vaduz	35.7%	2.80	4.00 Betfair	25.0%	+10.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	88.2%	1.13	1.14 Betano	87.7%	+0.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	11.8%	8.48	6.50 Betfair	15.4%	-3.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	70.3%	1.42	1.45 Betano	69.0%	+1.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	29.7%	3.37	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	-5.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	49.2%	2.03	2.12 Betano	47.2%	+2.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Servette FC v FC Vaduz: too close to call

Our model makes Servette FC 42% to win this Swiss Super League fixture, with the draw at 23% and FC Vaduz at 36%. The goal projection is 1.89 for Servette FC against 1.74 for FC Vaduz — a slight edge to Servette FC on expected output. A combined 3.64 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 70% and both teams to score at 70%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 9%; 2-1 8%; 1-2 8%; 2-2 7%; 3-1 5%

This season

Season records for Servette FC and FC Vaduz
Servette FC		FC Vaduz
12	Played	13
5-1-6	W-D-L	3-1-9
1.33	Pts / game	0.77
1.42	Goals for / game	1.85
1.33	Goals against / game	2.23
58%	Over 2.5	100%
58%	BTTS	85%
17%	Clean sheets	8%
25%	Failed to score	8%
3-1-2	Home record	3-0-3
2-0-4	Away record	0-1-6
L1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Servette FC · FC Vaduz

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
18.7	Shots	16.3
7.7	Shots on target	4.5
5.0	Corners	4.0
3.67	Cards	2.50
14.3	Fouls	14.8
54	Possession %	60
1.61	xG	1.82
3 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.3	Shots	18.5
4.0	Shots on target	6.3
4.3	Corners	6.5
2.00	Cards	2.75
12.3	Fouls	14.3
56	Possession %	48
1.09	xG	1.94
3 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Servette FC	Metric	FC Vaduz
2.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.80
1.40	Goals conceded	1.40
1.17	Expected goals (xG)	1.93 (better)
	Big chances
4.00	Shots on target	5.60 (better)
12.33	Total shots	15.80 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.33 (better)	Corners	3.40
38.0	Possession %	59.2 (better)
311	Passes	521 (better)
	Tackles
11.67 (better)	Fouls	13.20
1.33	Offsides	1.20 (better)
	Throw-ins
3.67	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Servette FC wins: 1
Draws: 0
FC Vaduz wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Servette FC v FC Vaduz2–12026-10-24

Swiss Super League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Lugano	12	11	1	0	+26	34	FC Lugano won 5 of the last 5
2	BSC Young Boys	13	8	4	1	+16	28	BSC Young Boys won 4 of the last 5
3	FC Sion	13	8	2	3	+11	26	FC Sion won 2 of the last 5
4	FC Zurich	12	6	2	4	-1	20	FC Zurich won 4 of the last 5
5	FC ST. Gallen	12	6	1	5	-3	19	FC ST. Gallen won 3 of the last 5
6	Servette FC	12	5	1	6	+1	16	Servette FC won 3 of the last 5
7	FC Basel 1893	12	4	2	6	-4	14	FC Basel 1893 won 1 of the last 5
8	FC Luzern	13	3	4	6	-7	13	FC Luzern won 1 of the last 5
9	FC Thun	12	4	1	7	-10	13	FC Thun won 2 of the last 5
10	Grasshoppers	13	2	5	6	-13	11	Grasshoppers won 0 of the last 5
11	FC Vaduz	13	3	1	9	-5	10	FC Vaduz won 1 of the last 5
12	Lausanne	13	1	4	8	-11	7	Lausanne won 0 of the last 5