Predicted Edge

Scotland Mabvuku v Petro de Luanda

Scotland Mabvuku won 2 of the last 42–0Petro de Luanda won 2 of the last 4

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Scotland Mabvuku Petro de Luanda
17Shots1
12Shots on target0
6Corners1
—Fouls—
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards1
—Offsides—
—Passes—
57%Possession %43%
—xG—
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
15%
Both score
41%
Model pick
Scotland Mabvuku 39%
Likely score
1-1 14%
Expected goals
1.11 – 0.93

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultScotland Mabvuku38.7%2.58———
Match resultDraw31.9%3.13———
Match resultPetro de Luanda29.4%3.40———
Total goalsOver 1.561.3%1.63———
Total goalsUnder 1.538.7%2.59———
Total goalsOver 2.533.5%2.99———
Total goalsUnder 2.566.5%1.50———
Total goalsOver 3.515.1%6.64———
Total goalsUnder 3.584.9%1.18———
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes41.5%2.41———
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No58.5%1.71———

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Scotland Mabvuku favoured against Petro de Luanda

Our model makes Scotland Mabvuku 39% to win this CAF Champions League fixture, with the draw at 32% and Petro de Luanda at 29%. The goal projection is 1.11 for Scotland Mabvuku against 0.93 for Petro de Luanda — a slight edge to Scotland Mabvuku on expected output. A combined 2.04 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 33% and both teams to score at 41%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 14%
0-0 14%
1-0 14%
0-1 11%
2-0 8%

This season

Season records for Scotland Mabvuku and Petro de Luanda
Scotland Mabvuku Petro de Luanda
4Played4
2-1-1W-D-L2-1-1
1.75Pts / game1.75
0.75Goals for / game1.50
0.75Goals against / game1.00
25%Over 2.550%
0%BTTS25%
75%Clean sheets50%
50%Failed to score25%
2-0-0Home record1-1-0
0-1-1Away record1-0-1
L1StreakW1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Scotland Mabvuku · Petro de Luanda

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.0Shots7.5
6.0Shots on target2.0
4.5Corners4.0
2.00Cards1.00
—Fouls—
47Possession %53
—xG—
2 matchessample2 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
7.5Shots11.0
2.0Shots on target6.0
4.0Corners4.5
1.00Cards2.00
—Fouls—
53Possession %47
—xG—
2 matchessample2 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Scotland MabvukuMetricPetro de Luanda
0.80Goals scored1.20 (better)
0.20 (better)Goals conceded0.40
Expected goals (xG)
Big chances
Shots on target
Total shots
Touches in opp. box
Corners
Possession %
Passes
Tackles
Fouls
Offsides
Throw-ins
Yellow cards
Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Scotland Mabvuku wins
1
Draws
0
Petro de Luanda wins
1
Goals / game
2.50
Over 2.5
50%
Both score
0%